Heavy thunder showers over North, N.central and N-W Tamilnadu.

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RT @ibwhitty: @mr_mustard Severe monsoon weather in Tucson night of August 15 ~ http://wp.me/pxK1o-mX (via @searchnetmedia)

Wet weather over South seen lasting longer ... http://ow.ly/2qb8X

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spectacular place, probably on earth !! ... http://ow.ly/2qb2s

Foundation of IPCC's Global Warming Theory Falsified by New Peer Reviewed Study ... http://ow.ly/2qb1j

Wet weather over South seen lasting longer

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees ongoing wet weather in the South and Interior Peninsula leading to moderate to heavy precipitation during most part of this week.

In its update based on initial conditions obtaining on Saturday, the IRI said that parts of Kerala, South and Interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Interior Karnataka may witness heavy recorded rainfall.

SPILL OVER

Heavy rains have also been forecast for the plains of North-West India covering parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh.

Spill-over rains are indicated for areas in East-Central Pakistan adjoining the international border across West Rajasthan.

The IRI has also forecast very heavy to extremely heavy rains for parts of West Nepal and adjoining Himalayan foothills along Uttar Pradesh.

The causative systems continue to be the ones active over India — the monsoon trough, upper air cyclonic circulations over North-West Rajasthan and the latest one traced to over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh.

TURN OF FLOWS

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday also indicated a slight turning of flows over the South Peninsula and a veritable offshore trough along the Southeast Coast.

During the last 24 hours ending in the afternoon, widespread rainfall has been reported from Assam, Meghalaya, East Madhya Pradesh, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

It was fairly widespread over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and the remaining parts of Central India, North Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, the West Coast and extreme South Peninsular India.

A satellite picture on Sunday signalled the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, East, Central and South Peninsular India, East-Central and South Bay of Bengal, North Andaman Sea and South-East Arabian Sea.

The IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.

An outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested that the southerly flows feeding the trough along the southeast coast may taper off by Friday.

Fresh flows over Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal might get triggered by early next week, until which time a brief interlude would set in, as per the ECMWF outlook.

An IMD forecast until Wednesday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West Himalayas, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, the West Coast, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Indo-Gangetic plains outside Rajasthan.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand on Monday and decrease thereafter.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Pradesh, Interior Maharashtra and the rest of South Peninsular India.

However, rainfall activity may decrease over Tamil Nadu after two days, the IMD outlook said.

More on LA NINA effect

To some extend I too support LA NINA effect. The warmer west Pacific [Asian Region]and to some extend Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in 2010 Indian Summer Monsoon. 


[1] The orientation of High pressure in Indian Ocean [Perhaps Mascarene High]and the cross equatorial winds are stronger and lash Indian west coast above 15 Deg Latitude.
[2]Is it due to weak trade winds in association with LA NINA ?
[3] Historical records of the year 1931 is somewhat identical with 2010 SWM pattern.
[4] Accordingly Karnataka may get rainfall in late AUG or early SEP. But NEM may or may NOT fair well. 
[5] LA NINA may prevail for longer run say 24 to 36 months or even beyond.
[6]In that case SWM 2011 may not be good for Karnataka.
[Purely this is my presumption based on historical records and hear says from weather skeptics.]


Posted by Kaneyen