The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees ongoing wet weather in the South and Interior Peninsula leading to moderate to heavy precipitation during most part of this week.
In its update based on initial conditions obtaining on Saturday, the IRI said that parts of Kerala, South and Interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Interior Karnataka may witness heavy recorded rainfall.
SPILL OVER
Heavy rains have also been forecast for the plains of North-West India covering parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh.
Spill-over rains are indicated for areas in East-Central Pakistan adjoining the international border across West Rajasthan.
The IRI has also forecast very heavy to extremely heavy rains for parts of West Nepal and adjoining Himalayan foothills along Uttar Pradesh.
The causative systems continue to be the ones active over India — the monsoon trough, upper air cyclonic circulations over North-West Rajasthan and the latest one traced to over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh.
TURN OF FLOWS
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday also indicated a slight turning of flows over the South Peninsula and a veritable offshore trough along the Southeast Coast.
During the last 24 hours ending in the afternoon, widespread rainfall has been reported from Assam, Meghalaya, East Madhya Pradesh, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was fairly widespread over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and the remaining parts of Central India, North Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, the West Coast and extreme South Peninsular India.
A satellite picture on Sunday signalled the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, East, Central and South Peninsular India, East-Central and South Bay of Bengal, North Andaman Sea and South-East Arabian Sea.
The IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.
An outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested that the southerly flows feeding the trough along the southeast coast may taper off by Friday.
Fresh flows over Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal might get triggered by early next week, until which time a brief interlude would set in, as per the ECMWF outlook.
An IMD forecast until Wednesday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West Himalayas, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, the West Coast, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Indo-Gangetic plains outside Rajasthan.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand on Monday and decrease thereafter.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Pradesh, Interior Maharashtra and the rest of South Peninsular India.
However, rainfall activity may decrease over Tamil Nadu after two days, the IMD outlook said.
But no rain in Karnataka. Bangalore as usual dry. Mumbai - non stop rain. It seems Santacruz recorded 160mm of rain in 24hours yesterday.
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