November 07, 2015 at 07:14AM

RT @naveenkumars84: Massive Rains at #Mugalivakkam #Porur #Chennai #BeSafe @weatherofindia #iwm (7:05am) ... Raining in Polichalur as well.

96B - A LOW over S Bay. Expected to intensify and move WNW.

S Bay LOW is tracked as 96B.. at present its a low pressure area ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ehndu.jpg

11:30pm, IR shows that 96B is slowly getting a good shape and intensity ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ehnx2.jpg

96B is expected to drift W-N-W and intensify into a Depression on Sunday, 8-Nov.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ehnL8.jpg
GFS expects the 96B to develop into a Deep depression / marginal cyclone and make landfall near Pondicherry on Diwali day, 10-Nov !!

Before 9am, today, 7-Nov...
Moderate/heavy rain expected along central,N coast Tamilnadu and some for #Chennai ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ehoOF.jpg

12am, Already we can see moderate rain all along Tamilnadu coast from Karaikal to Marakkanam ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ehpfn.jpg
#Chennai - Some moderate / light rain will push into city, suburbs in next 6/8hrs.

If 96B, continues to progress as expected... then HEAVY rain expected along N,central,SE Tamilnadu coast, Chennai from night of 7-Nov.

An UAC has formed in the Easterly trough, East off Sri Lanka. This is likely to strengthen and become a surface Low by Friday, and track towards the TN coast this weekend.

Rainfall will gradually increase from Sunday in TN. The coastal regions and Southern peninsula will see heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday.

Chennai will see an increase in precipitation from Saturday as the system nears the coastline. Very good thunder showers thru Sunday. Would expect around 100- 110 mms from Saturday morning to Monday morning. Could be heavy in some areas of city.

The Well marked Low, or Depression, may cross the TN coast on sunday. Can possibily emerge in the Arabian Sea of Kerala.Could be supported by a current UAC around Lakshadweep Islands.

more about N-3 and N-4 in www.vagaries.in

Chapala aftermath and now Cyclone Megh.

Some hi-res images captured by NASA's satellite.
Taken from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/

Before Chapala...

After Chapala...

Rainfall estimate of that day.

And now a NEW threat is on way for Yemen, Socotra Island and this time Northern Somalia as well.

5pm, Cyclone Megh...
"Not intensified during past 12hrs"
"Tracked West"
"Showing sign of weakening"
Pressure.. 997mb .. 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/egGEz.jpg

GFS expects, Cyclone #Megh to weaken during next 48hrs, move West and touch Socotra Islands on Sunday as Depression ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/egH3F.jpg

.. but JTWC expects a "touch-n-go" along Socotra Island on Sunday as a Cyclone itself ... 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/egHez.jpg

Cyclone Megh is here !

Cyclone Megh is here over central Arabian sea ... and "again" eyeing Socotra Island and Yemen coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/efxgS.jpg

Posted Thursday Night:
Rains expected to increase along TN coast (Chennai) from Sunday 8th onwards.

1. There is a East -West trough running roughly along the 10N line, eastwards from the East Coast of Sri Lanka. This will embed an UAC and subsequently by the 8th, a Low. .
The Low is expected to deepen and track NW towards the TN Coast. 
The system can cross the TN coast as a depression by Monday 9th.
There is a slight possibility of system re-emerging in the Arabian Sea off Kerala by mid next week. 

2. Western Disturbance N-3 is likely to bring rains in North Pakistan from Sunday 8th and North India from 9th .
Day and night temperatures are expected to fall in NW and North India next week.
 More on both these systems with weekend forecast on Friday....

November 05, 2015 at 05:53PM

Dohnavur - 4:14pm, raining. First photo taken around noon. #weather

from Instagram

A wet shopping weekend and Diwali eve ahead for Tamilnadu

SSE Bay is having a weak elongated circulation, this can develop into a strong circulation, LOW, move West in 48hrs .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eey3S.jpg
This SSE Bay circulation is expected to intensify and drift West as a WML on Sunday near to NE Srilanka coast.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eey8N.jpg

During next 4/5 days, there's NO significant WD systems affecting north India, instead a low-level anti-cyclone expected over central India.
This central India Anti-cyclone can guide the upcoming S Bay system to keep tracking West and in some cases W-S-W as well !!

GFS expects the system to develop into Depression and reach NE Srilanka on 9-Nov... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eeyjA.jpg

ECMWF model suggests a landfall along central-coast Tamilnadu on 9-Nov as Deep Depression ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eeynH.jpg

More scattered T showers ahead for S,SE,NW,W, W-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats,S,SW Karnataka today before midnight.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eeyVk.jpg
Today and before morning of 6-Nov... HEAVY rainfall ALERT for Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu

Chennai - can get a scattered light / moderate shower from Sea after midnight and early morning of 6-Nov.

95A is now 05A, Depression over central Arabian sea

Yesterday's Arabian sea LOW "95A" is now "05A" a depression now.
Cyclone alert issued.
Pressure now is 1000mb.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eewxY.jpg

Will 05A become a Cyclone like Chapala?
All depends on the dry air "already" trying to encircle the system... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eewM2.jpg

In next 2 days.. GFS expects the Dry air to encircle the entire 05A and Will not allow to intensify.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/eewQS.jpg
Before starting to weaken after Saturday... this 05A may become a marginal Cyclone and may not get the name !!

November 05, 2015 at 12:24PM

Chennai - 10:30am, heavy rain over Polichalur, Anakaputhur, Pallavaram zone. Polichalur got 24.9mm. #weather

from Instagram