LIFE CYCLE VIDEO OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "NILOFAR"

A strong W.D system is nearing N,central Pakistan, will start affecting in next 6 hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/7tkUt 
The W.D will start affecting Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal from evening, night of 6-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/7tl91
The upcoming W.D is expected to last till Saturday morning over Kashmir and Himachal.

#Chennai - Today, it was DRY, bit cold and with high cloud cover .
Min temp today morning.
Airport = 21.4 C
IWM Polichalur = 21.7 C

Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu, Kerala, S Andhra and Chennai during next 2 days !
COLD morning, DRY day ahead!

Chance of Scattered showers for S Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days !

91B - now a well marked LOW, Can it become a Cyclone ??

Analysis of 91B suggests that during past 12hrs it has intensified to Well marked LOW, with pressure around 1003mb. And showing signs of intensifying.
5pm, IR shows good convective activity around its location.

At present it is located over Central Bay.

GFS model suggests a Northerly movement (for 2 days) with NO great intensification beyond Depression and then make a N-W movement as a LOW pressure system and reach upto Odisha coast.

But NAVGEM model suggests a N-N-E movement for next 2 days, then weaken  and drift Westwards towards Andhra coast on 9-Nov !!

The wind shear along the System and North of it (around 20N) is HIGH, this'll not allow the system to intensify and sustain.

Nilofar !!

Cyclones are relatively infrequent in the Arabian Sea—just one or two per year—and severe cyclones are even rarer. For this reason, meteorologists and government officials in India, Pakistan, and Oman were anxiously watching Cyclone Nilofar in the last week of October 2014. The cyclone reached category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, but by the time of landfall in India on October 31, it was barely a tropical depression.

The images above and below were acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’sTerra satellite on October 28 (top), when the storm was approaching peak intensity, and on October 30 (below), when it had decayed to tropical storm force. A few hours after the first image was taken, Nilofar’s winds reached 115 knots (130 miles or 210 kilometers per hour). It was the third strongest cyclone on record for the Arabian Sea. By the time the second image was acquired, wind speeds had dropped to 50 knots (55 mph or 90 kmph).

Local authorities in the Indian state of Gujarat had started to evacuate residents from low-lying areas in advance of the storm. But as Nilofar moved north and east in the Arabian Sea, it was broken up by strong wind shear and further weakened by dry desert air blowing offshore. By October 31, the storm had faded to a low-pressure system that was expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall, rough surf, and windy weather to Gujarat.

Taken from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/

Cold bite or simply northerly wind?

I would better prefer to say that this time it is post monsoon effect [which is generally referred to as NEM] rather than NEM.

Even though the  strength of Siberian High or Tibetan High are pronouncing they are over powered by winds from southern hemisphere.  However they may give a cold bites in coastal AP and North coastal TN in days to come.

Weather Instagram at November 03, 2014 at 06:42PM

Chennai - 4:43pm, a heavily covered day. Temp around 28 C. Photo of new Saravana stores, Chromepet. #weather

from Instagram

Today, a weak W.D system is affecting N,N-central Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.
A strong W.D system is expected to reach N,central Pakistan, N,N-W India on 6,7,8-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7rwvc 

Analysis show that circulation persists over S-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/7rn45 
In next 2 days, present Bay circulation is expected to become elongated over central Bay from NN-E to SS-W .. http://ow.ly/i/7rtxu 

If the present S-central Bay circulation drifts North then moisture over Tamilnadu will go dry from Wednesday.
For next 24hrs, Scattered T showers expected only for S,S-W Tamilnadu and Isolated along S-E,central Coast Tamilnadu.
For Chennai, Almost NO rain expected during next 2 days !

5:30pm, Heavy showers continue along most of Kerala coast, S, S-tip Tamilnadu from morning... http://ow.ly/i/7rv8r 
Nagercoil - 6pm, Steady moderate rain from noon !

Typhoon Nuri intensifies into "Super Typhoon"