Even though the strength of Siberian High or Tibetan High are pronouncing they are over powered by winds from southern hemisphere. However they may give a cold bites in coastal AP and North coastal TN in days to come.
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Cold bite or simply northerly wind?
Even though the strength of Siberian High or Tibetan High are pronouncing they are over powered by winds from southern hemisphere. However they may give a cold bites in coastal AP and North coastal TN in days to come.
Monday, November 03, 2014
Weather Instagram at November 03, 2014 at 06:42PM
Chennai - 4:43pm, a heavily covered day. Temp around 28 C. Photo of new Saravana stores, Chromepet. #weather
Today, a weak W.D system is affecting N,N-central Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.
A strong W.D system is expected to reach N,central Pakistan, N,N-W India on 6,7,8-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7rwvc
A strong W.D system is expected to reach N,central Pakistan, N,N-W India on 6,7,8-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7rwvc
Analysis show that circulation persists over S-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/7rn45
In next 2 days, present Bay circulation is expected to become elongated over central Bay from NN-E to SS-W .. http://ow.ly/i/7rtxu
If the present S-central Bay circulation drifts North then moisture over Tamilnadu will go dry from Wednesday.
For next 24hrs, Scattered T showers expected only for S,S-W Tamilnadu and Isolated along S-E,central Coast Tamilnadu.
For Chennai, Almost NO rain expected during next 2 days !
5:30pm, Heavy showers continue along most of Kerala coast, S, S-tip Tamilnadu from morning... http://ow.ly/i/7rv8r
Nagercoil - 6pm, Steady moderate rain from noon !
Sunday, November 02, 2014
The new Low in the Bay, BB-20, scheduled to form on 3rd November as mentioned in Vagaries and likely around the same predicted spot..West of The Andaman Islands.
Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula.
Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said theat the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.
City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.
Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.
Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....
Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.
N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday.
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)
Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning.
from vagaries
Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula.
Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said theat the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.
City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.
Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.
Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....
Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.
N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday.
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)
Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning.
from vagaries
How South Bay will shape up in next 3/4 days ??
An E-W elongated circulation is seen covering over S-W to S-E Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/7qWsO
During next 36hrs, the circulation over S-W-central Bay is expected to persist with a elongated nature.. http://ow.ly/i/7qWzI
Now we have 2 scenarios forecast for 2 models...
GFS expects a Depression to form over E Bay on 5-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7qWBc
If GFS model comes out true, then the RAIN over Tamilnadu will vanish from Tuesday !!
NAVGEM model suggests the same like GFS for mid-week ... the present elongated circulation to tilt from N-E to S-W from E-Bay to S-W Bay.
After that NAVGEM suggests a depression to take shape over S-W-central Bay itself on 6-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7qWIz
ECMWF model like GFS... suggests a E Bay depression on Thursday ... http://ow.ly/i/7qWOU
CMC / GEM and WRF model is going with NAVGEM model ... suggests a Depression along 10N over S-W-central Bay, 4/5-Nov http://ow.ly/i/7qWRj
During next 36hrs...
HEAVY T showers for S,S-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S,central Kerala.
For N,central,S-E coast Tamilnadu, Chennai ...
Moderate showers expected on today midnight into morning of Monday.. http://ow.ly/i/7qWZr
From Monday evening, less showers expected for N,central coast Tamilnadu and Chennai.
We'll monitor S-W-central Bay on 3,4-Nov.
Weather Instagram at November 02, 2014 at 10:50AM
#chennai - 10:49am, light rain now over Polichalur zone. Moderate rain inside city. #weather
Saturday, November 01, 2014
Weather Instagram at November 01, 2014 at 12:50PM
Chennai - 12pm, warm and breezy. No sign of rain. IWM Polichalur got 16.5mm till 8:30am. #weather
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