RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 3.10pm, Dark clouds from SW Direction and it is raining now... 

Weather Instagram at August 05, 2014 at 03:31PM

#chennai - 2:30pm, Hot summer continues. Scattered Rain possible after 4:30pm. #weather

from Instagram

Rainfall forecast for next 42 hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In next 12hrs...
HEAVY widespread rain expected along S,S-W,W quadrants of the present LOW... http://ow.ly/i/6scV4 
During next 12hrs...
HEAVY widespread rain ahead for S,central,E,N-E Madhyapradesh, N,central Chatisgarh into S,S-E Uttarpradesh.
Some heavy scattered rain is expected to push into E Gujarat and S,S-E Rajasthan as well before morning of 6-Aug.
HEAVY rain forecast for N,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-W Uttarpradesh and some rain is expected to push into S Haryana, Delhi in 24hrs.

As the low,upper-level circulation is expected to push W-N-W...
Tomorrow, scattered heavy rain for E,S-E,N-E Gujarat, W,N-W Madhyapradesh.
Tomorrow also HEAVY rain will persist over N,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-W Uttarpradesh.
Tomorrow, HEAVY scattered rain will push into S,S-E,E,central Rajasthan ... http://ow.ly/i/6sd9a 

Scattered T showers expected over N,N-W Tamilnadu on today, tomorrow afternoon.
Some will be over S Karnataka, moderate rain for Bangalore.
Moderate rain expected over #Chennai, N-E,N-central coast of Tamilnadu after 4pm on today, 6-Aug.

Today, the LOW/depression has drifted W-N-W and located over Jharkhand... expected to move N-W upto S-W Uttarpradesh http://ow.ly/i/6sb5h
West coast offshore trough is active from N Maharastra coast to N-central Kerala coast... will persist for 2 days .. http://ow.ly/i/6sbb7

Circulations related to this LOW is also located almost in same zone at ALL air levels (low,mid,upper)... http://ow.ly/i/6sbec
By 7-Aug, the low-level circulation of this LOW is expected to drift upto N Madhyapradesh, S-W Uttarpradesh, #Delhi http://ow.ly/i/6sbgC
While the upper-level circulation is expected to traverse W-N-W thru Central MP and reach E,N-E Gujarat on 7-Aug.. http://ow.ly/i/6sc2m

12:30pm, HEAVY rain is observed over most of Chatisgarh into E,S-E Madhyapradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/6sc7n
12:30pm, Scattered heavy rain persist over Karnataka coast, N-central,central Kerala and S-E Gujarat coast... http://ow.ly/i/6sc7n

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 10.00am, Swollen River Cauvery near Mandya on Aaadhiperukku ., clicked yesterday evening  http://ow.ly/i/6rjGY 

Today the N,N-N-W Bay circulation is seen along S Bengal, N-E Odisha ... pushing N-W into land ... http://ow.ly/i/6ropQ 
This present LOW is expected to move N-W upto S-W Uttarpradesh, N Madhyapradesh in next 42hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/6roxk 

3:30pm, Massive rain all along Southern side of monsoon axis and along circulation ... http://ow.ly/i/6rrQT 
3:30pm, Heavy rain seen from E,S-E Rajasthan, S Haryana thru central Madhyapradesh, S,central Chatisgarh to Odisha http://ow.ly/i/6rrQT
3:30pm, scattered rain also continue over Kerala, Karnataka coast, Maharastra coast ... http://ow.ly/i/6rrQT

#chennai - 7:36pm, moderate rain now over Polichalur zone

RT @OldSailor: @weatherofindia #Chennai #Nanganallur #Drizzling started after a hot day 1700 hrs http://t.co/O1JxekDPJE

#Chennai - 7:50pm, more moderate rain ahead for SW,W,S suburbs of city in next 1hr.

#Chennai - 9:10pm, heavy drizzle now over Polichalur zone. A heavy shower is now approaching this zone from west.

El-Nino Status 2014....prepared on 3rd August 2014.

The El Nino 2014 has stalled ! And Neutral Conditions Continue.

ENSO to develop requires the Sea Surface Temperatures to warm up. And the warming should go beyond the +0.5c anomaly. For this, the atmospheric support is needed. And that is suddenly lacking this last 15 days. ENSO can develop into El Nino with the assistance of both the sea and atmospheric parameters.

As a result, the Sea surface temperatures have stopped warming, in fact cooled a bit. Our region concern is the NINO 3.4...it has cooled by 0.3c last 15 days, and that anomaly is near about the long term average.

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) last observed was -5.2. Certainly refraining us from calling it an El Nino event .

The strong MJO wave has moved East, and Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed near Indonesia and in the western Pacific. Factors related to this like Kelvin Wave and Tropical Cyclones have influenced the convection.

In 2nd and 3rd week of August, our seas can get a "Neutral MJO" condition..
Normally, MJO forecasts are most accurate when the MJO event has started. That is when enhanced convective activity starts developing, and the "wave" propagates Eastwards.

Ocean Nino Index. This index should be +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. Current Index is 0.2.

The Aust. Bureau of Met has given the "Watch" status to the event.Given recent easing in conditions and model outlooks, if an event when occurs, is unlikely to be strong. 

Hence, formation of Proper El Nino difficult to occur before November 2014. 

From Vagaries

Weather Instagram at August 03, 2014 at 01:31PM

#chennai - 1:30pm, hot and hazy noon. Windy at times. Moderate rain expected after 4pm. #weather

from Instagram

Special weather bulletein issued by Mauritus Meteorological Department

A strong wind advisory valid Sunday 03 August 2014 at 16h00 until Tuesday 05 August 2014 for Mauritius and Rodrigues.

The aprroach of a strong anti-cyclone from the south-west is strengthening the pressure gradient
over our region, causing cold and gusty winds and a rough sea over Mauritius and Rodrigues.

It is expected that the gusts may reach 80 to 90 km/h over the exposed areas with a temperature
drop of the order of 2 degrees celsius from the seasonal mean.

Ventures in the open seas as well as in the southern lagoons are not advised.
 [This tele-connection with Asian summer monsoon especially SWM of India will be encouraging.] The strengthening of pressure gradient is a good sign.  From that, one can infer that again SWM will be active over west coast especially around (and below)  [+ or -]15 Degree Parallel and equally good in   Bay of Bengal

7:30pm, Super heavy T showers seen over many parts of central,S-E,E Rajasthan... http://ow.ly/i/6q6KI 
7:30pm, more T showers seen ALL along monsoon axis from central Pakistan to Rajasthan, Madhyapradesh, N,central Chatisgarh to Odisha.
7:30pm, Heavy rain continue over Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/6q6KI

8:05pm, "Heavy rain with high winds in Thiruvarur, Tamilnadu"

Chennai - 8:15pm, HEAVY t showers now over N-W from city at 30 to 60km.
Some showers have already pushed into W-N-W suburbs.
Chennai - T showers will push into N,N-W,W-N-W suburbs and some showers will cross city in next 30 to 45min.