El-Nino Status 2014....prepared on 3rd August 2014.
The El Nino 2014 has stalled ! And Neutral Conditions Continue.
ENSO to develop requires the Sea Surface Temperatures to warm up. And the warming should go beyond the +0.5c anomaly. For this, the atmospheric support is needed. And that is suddenly lacking this last 15 days. ENSO can develop into El Nino with the assistance of both the sea and atmospheric parameters.
As a result, the Sea surface temperatures have stopped warming, in fact cooled a bit. Our region concern is the NINO 3.4...it has cooled by 0.3c last 15 days, and that anomaly is near about the long term average.
SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) last observed was -5.2. Certainly refraining us from calling it an El Nino event .
The strong MJO wave has moved East, and Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed near Indonesia and in the western Pacific. Factors related to this like Kelvin Wave and Tropical Cyclones have influenced the convection.
In 2nd and 3rd week of August, our seas can get a "Neutral MJO" condition..
Normally, MJO forecasts are most accurate when the MJO event has started. That is when enhanced convective activity starts developing, and the "wave" propagates Eastwards.
Ocean Nino Index. This index should be +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. Current Index is 0.2.
The Aust. Bureau of Met has given the "Watch" status to the event.Given recent easing in conditions and model outlooks, if an event when occurs, is unlikely to be strong.
Hence, formation of Proper El Nino difficult to occur before November 2014.
From Vagaries
The El Nino 2014 has stalled ! And Neutral Conditions Continue.
ENSO to develop requires the Sea Surface Temperatures to warm up. And the warming should go beyond the +0.5c anomaly. For this, the atmospheric support is needed. And that is suddenly lacking this last 15 days. ENSO can develop into El Nino with the assistance of both the sea and atmospheric parameters.
As a result, the Sea surface temperatures have stopped warming, in fact cooled a bit. Our region concern is the NINO 3.4...it has cooled by 0.3c last 15 days, and that anomaly is near about the long term average.
SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) last observed was -5.2. Certainly refraining us from calling it an El Nino event .
The strong MJO wave has moved East, and Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed near Indonesia and in the western Pacific. Factors related to this like Kelvin Wave and Tropical Cyclones have influenced the convection.
In 2nd and 3rd week of August, our seas can get a "Neutral MJO" condition..
Normally, MJO forecasts are most accurate when the MJO event has started. That is when enhanced convective activity starts developing, and the "wave" propagates Eastwards.
Ocean Nino Index. This index should be +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. Current Index is 0.2.
The Aust. Bureau of Met has given the "Watch" status to the event.Given recent easing in conditions and model outlooks, if an event when occurs, is unlikely to be strong.
Hence, formation of Proper El Nino difficult to occur before November 2014.
From Vagaries
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