El Nino Modoki crosses threshold and its emergence now irreversible

Daily values for Nino Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and SOI have crossed Nino threshold though their 30 day mean values may still show a lag. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which till very recently reflected La Nina values have now flipped into El Nino mode. 

According to the Australian Met yesterday daily SOI was a whopping (-) 20.6. It is now clear that we are not having a canonical El Nino, but a Modoki (pseudo El Nino), Type II variety wich would be very devastating for the Indian monsoon. To accentuate the problem, both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) have turned adverse for rainfall, compounding the adverse effect of the Modoki.

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/06/el-nino-modoki-crosses-threshold-and.html

4:30pm, lots of T showers seen over East, E-central India and light showers over central,N-E Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/628MC 
4:30pm, More heavy rain over S,central zones of N-E #India ... http://ow.ly/i/628MC

#Chennai - 5:15pm, mini showers seen over W-N-W.N-W from city at around 40 to 100km.

Weather Instagram at June 26, 2014 at 01:15PM

#chennai - 1pm, another super hot summer day. Remember this is June end. #weather

from Instagram

Another N Bay circulation ... more rain ahead for E,S-E,N-E India

A low,mid,upper level circulation is seen over N Bay ... Upper circulation is slightly tilted to S,S-W ... http://ow.ly/i/61YNC 

10:30am, The N Bay circulation has created lots of convective activity over N,N-W Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/61YVs 
10:30am, Rest of India is clear, especially the W,S-W coast of India is again having a DRY day ... http://ow.ly/i/61YVs

GFS expects the circulation to push N-W into S Bengal, N-E Odisha coast in another 24hrs and persist there for 2 days! http://ow.ly/i/61Z0Z 
The upper-level circulation is expected to drift into Odisha coast on 27-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/61Z3a 

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

During next 12hrs,
Moderate / Heavy scattered rain for S,central Bengal, Jharkhand and over most of Odisha ... http://ow.ly/i/61Z71 
During next 12hrs,
Some T showers will pop over N-E Andhra and into S Chatisgarh.
Isolated over S Karnataka, S,central Andhra, N Tamilnadu.

On 27-Jun, more widespread rain ahead for S,central Bengal, Jharkhand and heavy over Odisha... http://ow.ly/i/61Zbg 
On 27-Jun, scattered T showers expected over S,S-E Karnataka, S,central,N-E Andhra, N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu.
Scattered T showers will also push into S Chatisgarh on 27-Jun !
#Chennai - can expect a T shower on tomorrow evening !
Today there's a 15% chance of rain for S-W,W suburbs !

N-E states of India will continue to get scattered Heavy rain during next 2 days !!

The writing is on the wall. India faces drought, degree of severity remaining the only question

June accounts for only 18% of the rainfall during the South West Monsoon (SWM) while July-August together accounts for a whopping 62%. The IMD’s revised forecast earlier this month predicted a 7% rainfall deficiency for the season and accordingly they are betting that July-August could see favourable rainfall that avoids a drought situation in the country.  So is a revival possible as IMD is hoping for?

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/06/the-writing-is-on-wall-india-faces.html

25 june 2014 heavy Pre Monsoon Rain in Punjab

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOynY9Knz7c&client=mv-google&gl=IN&guid=&hl=en-GB&app=desktop

Weather Instagram at June 25, 2014 at 12:29PM

#chennai - just another hot #summer day. At times windy from west. #weather

from Instagram

Agricultural experts allege Modi Sarkar taking public for a ride by their monsoon updates

Agriculture experts are up in arms accusing the government of gross dishonesty. There seem to be an element of truth to these allegations that the Modi Sarkar through the IMD is not completely honest in their feedback to the public on the gravity of monsoon failure this season.

Read more: http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.in/2014/06/agricultural-experts-modi-sarkar-taking.html

Present upper-level W.D trough will clear away from N,N-central India in next 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/60F1L 
N Bay along S Bengal coast may pop a upper-level circulation on 26-Jun ! 

Arabian sea wing of Monsoon is expected to become even more weak on 26-Jun and stay put till 30-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/60DxU 
Gujarat, coastal Maharastra and #Mumbai can expect the #Monsoon to be back on 1-July !!