"Another low-pressure area is expected over the Bay of Bengal by the weekend, which is expected to gain enough strength and move towards central India, bringing rain to the interior parts of the country. Over the same period, the phase of intra-seasonal variability is also likely to be favourable for better rainfall activity over India,"
Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/07/monsoon-revival-imd-bets-on-lows.html
Though the Southwest monsoon has covered vast tracts of the country, rainfall deficiency for the season so far has increased to 53 per cent and the worst-affected areas are peninsular and central India.
First half of July looks slightly better than June. The period 7-17 July looking relative productive in terms of rainfall, irrespective whether a typhoon develops as forecasted by US models. This scenario only flatters to deceive as around the 17, the monsoon is expected to go back to its slump.
http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/07/indian-monsoon-july-forecast-more.html
Speculation of the monsoon performance has become the central focus of our economy so much our Prime Minister is reported to monitor reports almost real time. So why is it so central? According to industry body Assocham, a 1 per cent deficit in rains could hurt India's economic growth by 0.35 per cent. Assuming a 20% deficiency, our GDP will no doubt be deeply in the red, given that last year GDP was within the sub 4 range.
Daily values for Nino Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and SOI have crossed Nino threshold though their 30 day mean values may still show a lag. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which till very recently reflected La Nina values have now flipped into El Nino mode.According to the Australian Met yesterday daily SOI was a whopping (-) 20.6. It is now clear that we are not having a canonical El Nino, but a Modoki (pseudo El Nino), Type II variety wich would be very devastating for the Indian monsoon. To accentuate the problem, both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) have turned adverse for rainfall, compounding the adverse effect of the Modoki.
June accounts for only 18% of the rainfall during the South West Monsoon (SWM) while July-August together accounts for a whopping 62%. The IMD’s revised forecast earlier this month predicted a 7% rainfall deficiency for the season and accordingly they are betting that July-August could see favourable rainfall that avoids a drought situation in the country. So is a revival possible as IMD is hoping for?
Agriculture experts are up in arms accusing the government of gross dishonesty. There seem to be an element of truth to these allegations that the Modi Sarkar through the IMD is not completely honest in their feedback to the public on the gravity of monsoon failure this season.Read more: http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.in/2014/06/agricultural-experts-modi-sarkar-taking.html