RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 4.30PM, Clear skies, hot and humid day.. no cloud formation yet.. sky pic http://ow.ly/i/5DHe7
4:30pm, T showers seen over N,N-E Tamilnadu... from 60km West of Chennai to 200km ... http://ow.ly/i/5DHMV
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
92B - Now a Depression and Cyclone formation alert issued
Analysis at 2pm, suggests that yesterday's LOW pressure system over E,E-central Bay 92B has deepened further and now it's a Depression.
Pressure around 1000mb.
The system is almost stagnant and located over E Bay near to North Andaman Islands.
Yesterday's low-level circulation over S,S-S-E Arabian sea persists, both the systems are making way for good cross equatorial winds and pushing Monsoon into S,central Maldives island group.
1pm, JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation alert.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
91.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 210454Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 210357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOT) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERARE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2:30pm, Satellite Visible shot shows Convective activity over its S,W,S-W quadrant and not greatly organized. T showers seen popping over Kerala W-ghats, W,N-W Tamilnadu as well.
Models suggest a further deepening of 92B into Deep Depression and a slow drift in N-E direction towards Myanmar coast in next 36hrs. And then a drift towards N Bay on 24-May and towards Odisha coast on 25-May.
In inland India, today a low-level S-W tilted trough from N Bengal to S-S-E Arabian sea is seen.
During next 24hrs, this North-South trough is expected to drift along to S-E coast of India upto N Tamilnadu.
Windy from N-W is expected along S Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu, Chennai on 22,23-May.
Rainfall alert ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Till late-evening of 22-May, T showers expected over N,central,W-ghats Kerala, S,S-W,central Karnataka, N,N-W,N-central, N-E,central-coast Tamilnadu.
S,central coast Kerala and S tip Tamilnadu can expect showers from Sea around evening and into midnight of 22-May
One T shower may push into S,S-W,N-W suburbs of Chennai on today, 22-May.
Monsoon is expected to push into S,W coast Srilanka on 23/24-May.
92B - LOW pressure system over E-central Bay, now JTWC issues Cyclone formation alert... more on this coming up !
92B may pull Monsoon into more zones of Bay and even to Srilanka in next 2/3 days ... http://ow.ly/x5oum
92B may pull Monsoon into more zones of Bay and even to Srilanka in next 2/3 days ... http://ow.ly/x5oum
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Formation of new segment of STH in south Indian Ocean
[1] A new segment of "MASCARENE HIGH' is developing at 30 Deg S / 50 Deg E with strength 1020 hPa. This will give thrust, if developed further, along Somalia coast / and thus enhanced cross equatorial flow across Arabian Sea.
[2] 92 B is strengthening further and its outer periphery wing drew winds through 10 Deg N 0r along Cumbum, Theni , Periyakulam,
[3] It may become a cyclone and move in west / NW direction
[5] Similarly it may lead to some SWM related activity in lower levels of AS. At higher latitude in As an anti cyclone is centered.
92B - Bay LOW and Monsoon !
Analysis at 5:30pm, shows that the existing circulation over E-central Bay has now almost concentrated into a depression with Pressure around 1002 mb.
At present the low,mid level circulation is over E,E-central Bay and near to North Andaman Islands.
Due to this, GOOD Monsoon winds seen pushing into most of Andamans.
S-S-E Arabian sea is also having a low-level circulation from yesterday. This is acting as a good engine for pulling cross equatorial winds over S,S-W Arabian sea.
If the circulation persists, S,central Maldives will have Monsoon in next 2 days.
5:30pm, Visible satellite shows ... HEAVY convective activity over its S,S-W,W quadrant.
And HEAVY rain over S,central Andaman Islands.
GFS - suggests that the circulation may not intensify, but it'll drift N-E towards Myanmar coast in next 48hrs.
The LOW may not make landfall, instead it's expected to linger into N-N-E Bay on 24-May.
In the meantime, the inland low-level North South trough from N Bengal is expected to drift to S-E coast of India. On 22-May, its expected to be from N Bengal to N Tamilnadu along coast.
Tomorrow, more T showers expected for W,S-W,S Karnataka, N,central,W-ghats Kerala into N,N-central,N-E Tamilnadu, S,S-central Andhra.
Rain may push into S-W,W,N-W suburbs of #Chennai tomorrow evening.
S-W Monsoon style rain may push into S Kerala coast and S tip Tamilnadu during early morning of 22-May.
5:15pm, Chennai RADAR shows- T showers over N,N-E Tamilnadu and into S Andhra.
Rain also seen W-N-W from city at 50km http://ow.ly/i/5CWld
Rain also seen W-N-W from city at 50km http://ow.ly/i/5CWld
4pm, Bangalore rain !
4pm, T showers seen over W,S-W Maharastra, W,S-W,S Karnataka, central,N Kerala, W,N-W,N Tamilnadu, S,N-E Andhra.. http://ow.ly/i/5CV8o
4pm, T showers witnessed over #Bangalore city as well.. http://ow.ly/i/5CV8o
Weather Instagrams from #Bangalore ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
#heavyrain #windy #bangalore #home #cold #strom
#bangalore #now #awesum #weather
Beautiful Bangalore when it rains #rain #bangalore #weather
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