El Nino - Will it affect 2014 Indian South West Monsoon ??

6-Mar-2014 :: ENSO update released by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER / NCEP / NWS, 
"ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, 
with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall."

Here's the full report ... Download PDF

11-Mar-2014 :: ENSO report released by Australian BOM ...
"Recent observations indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is occurring. The tropical Pacific Ocean
sub-surface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the
sea surface in the coming months. A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific is the
strongest seen since at least 2009 – the last time an El Niño developed."

Here's the full report of BOM ... Click here

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole is NEUTRAL, and expected to remain that way till August-2014.

El Nino, effect on Indian South west Monsoon 2014??

"raising fears of a possible weak monsoon this year." ... http://goo.gl/AI5f4M
" India keeps a close watch on El Nino" ... http://goo.gl/4i5kmX
"El Niño Could Hurt India’s Monsoon "... http://goo.gl/4qsFJO

RT @aknarendranath: Unusually heavy thundertorm over Delhi around 05.45 am. Farmers must have rued it for the damge to their standing crops. 

9:30am, Heavy rain over Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand. moderate rain popping over N,central Uttarpradesh as well http://ow.ly/i/4VZFL 
During the night, T showers popped over N,N-E Rajathan and traveled across Haryana, #Delhi. Here's a sat IR 3:30am.. http://ow.ly/i/4VZQF

W.D is moving away to East... today showers will push into Nepal, N,N-E Uttarpradesh, N Bihar, N Bengal, Sikkim and into Northern N-E states

Dust storms in West Asia and North Africa can increase the Indian summer monsoon rainfall a week later .. http://ow.ly/uFcco 

#Chennai - Yesterday, Airport records a max temp of 32.6 C and today morning it was 22.6 C.

Most of peninsula and E India, the day temperature has risen sharply ...
In Tamilnadu salem touches 37.2 C.

IMD - "A number of stations recorded the highest maximum temperature of 38 C in S,central Peninsula"

During next 3 days, the DAY temp is expected to rise above 35 C over most of Peninsula and W,E India ... http://ow.ly/i/4VriU 

From 22/23-Mar ... Most of #India is expected to touch the 35 C day temperature ... http://ow.ly/i/4Vrnp 

Today - An easterlies is affecting S,S-W Bay, Srilanka and S,S-E Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/4Vq7r 
From tomorrow - T Showers are expected for S Tamilnadu and for W-Ghats of S,Central Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/4VqcA 
From tomorrow, Afternoon T Showers are expected over S,central, W-ghats of Kerala .
Expected to persist till 22-Mar !!

In next 24hrs, a low-level line of wind discontinuity is expected from E Madhyapradesh to N-W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/4VpQx 
Scattered Moderate rain expected to persist over W,S-W,Central,N,N-E Maharastra during next 36hrs.

11am, Analysis suggest that mid,upper-level W.D trough is affecting N,N-W India ... ow.ly/i/4Vnrr
In next 36hrs, the W.D system is expected to move away East ... and moisture will push to E,E-central India .. http://ow.ly/i/4VnwL 

During next 36hrs, moderate/heavy scattered rain expected for Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/4VnXr 
By tomorrow, the W.D rain is expected to push into Nepal, N,central,E Uttarpradesh and Bihar.!
Tomorrow - A 50% chance of "kal baisakhi" for Bihar, N Jharkhand and into N,central,W Bengal !

5:30pm, Cloudy with scattered rain over Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and N,N-E Rajasthan.. http://ow.ly/i/4VoFa 

Badlapur received showers early morning today (17-03-2014).

Badlapur had surprised drizzles with thick drops between 6.30am to 7.00am today.  

Badlapur min temp 25c with very low 45% humidity today. Rainfall recorded 0.5mm ending 8.30am today..

Very amazed that Rain God blessed with showers and played natural Holi (Dhulivandan) with trees & plants on earth surface here.. :)

Badlapur was hot with thundery build up today(15-03-2014)

Badlapur max temp 38.0c today with min humidity of 25% today.

Also at 5pm, thunder clouds gather so sky turn darker with some distant thundering but with no rain. As per radar rain was just 15kms away in East dir so missed it ..

A low-level line of wind discontinuity is seen along N Maharastra, S,central Chatisgarh ... http://ow.ly/i/4UoxO 
A low-level trough can be seen running along S-W coast of India from N Kerala coast to S-E Gujarat... http://ow.ly/i/4UoxO
A weak Low-level circulation is expected to persist over S-E Madhyapradesh, S,central Chatisgarh during next 24hrs http://ow.ly/i/4Uozj 

During next 36hrs, scattered light/moderate rain expected over W,central,E Maharastra, S Chatisgarh, N,N-E Andhra and into S Odisha.