Friday, October 22, 2010
12pm, As Cyclone "Giri" moving in N-E direction.. entire Karnataka coast, Goa and N. Kerala are getting Heavy rain.. http://ow.ly/i/4MHJ
1.Severe Cyclonic Storm "Giri" has tracked NE and is about to cross the land at Myanmar coast.The "away from the Indian coast" tracking is due to the W.D. heading eastwards, and was forecasted by Vagaries in the initial stage itself. With core pressure at 959 mb,and winds at 85 knots, it is likely to be harsh and fierce in Myanmar.
2.The mentioned W.D. is now active and precipitating rain in Kashmir and H.P, and overcast conditions in Punjab. Srinagar is 10c and raining at mid day on Friday. Expect snow in the higher ranges.The max. day temperature yesterday was 24c, and it has been at 25c average for the last week there. Amritsar is 20c at mid day today. Highs have been in the 30s last week. A cooling down, long overdue, will herald a seasonal change not only in the North, but also will be beneficial for the setting in of the NEM, one more +ve factor in addition to the yesterday's discussion on NEM.
3.The trough "dropping down" along the west coast, discussed in Vagaries in
the last 2 articles, has almost formed an off shore trough, something similar to the seasonal off shore trough, and falls up to Karnataka coast ! An off shore trough along the west coast on 22nd. October !! Somewhat uncommon ! Shows effective rains along the west coast south of Goa. As a reader mentions of heavy monsoon rains from Udipi. More on this in evening report.
Cyclone "04B" - "Giri" ... update
Very latest location ... 18.5N and 92.6E
Pressure ... 959mb
Wind speed ... 160 kmph
This Cyclone "Giri" was not predicted by most weather models around the world to become such a severe Cyclone. And that too in very short time span.
IMD
------------
JTWC
-------------
JTWC projected path
------------------------------
Satellite shot
-------------------
Now "Giri" has an EYE to it.
Pressure ... 959mb
Wind speed ... 160 kmph
This Cyclone "Giri" was not predicted by most weather models around the world to become such a severe Cyclone. And that too in very short time span.
IMD
------------
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal.
The severe cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and moved northeastwards, lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 22nd October 2010 over the northeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 19.00N and long.93.00E, about 150 km south of Sittwe(Myanmar) and 110 km west-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), 240 km south-southeast of Teknaf (Bangladesh) and 650 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal, India).
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast between Sittwe (Myanmar) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) by today, the 22nd October 2010 evening/night.
Since the system is likely to move towards north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts, it is not expected to affect east coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. will be informed accordingly.
JTWC
-------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 212330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF T=5.0 FROM PGTW AT 212330Z AND T=4.0 FROM KNES AT 212030Z. TC 04B HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND JUST AFTER TAU 12, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET.
JTWC projected path
------------------------------
Satellite shot
-------------------
Now "Giri" has an EYE to it.
'GIRI" watch
POSITION NEAR 18.5N 92.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 211533Z TRMM PASS AND A 211730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF T=4.0 FROM PGTW AT 211730Z AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04B HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND BY TAU 24, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)