Monday, August 16, 2010
RT @ibwhitty: @mr_mustard Severe monsoon weather in Tucson night of August 15 ~ http://wp.me/pxK1o-mX (via @searchnetmedia)
Foundation of IPCC's Global Warming Theory Falsified by New Peer Reviewed Study ... http://ow.ly/2qb1j
Wet weather over South seen lasting longer
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees ongoing wet weather in the South and Interior Peninsula leading to moderate to heavy precipitation during most part of this week.
In its update based on initial conditions obtaining on Saturday, the IRI said that parts of Kerala, South and Interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Interior Karnataka may witness heavy recorded rainfall.
SPILL OVER
Heavy rains have also been forecast for the plains of North-West India covering parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh.
Spill-over rains are indicated for areas in East-Central Pakistan adjoining the international border across West Rajasthan.
The IRI has also forecast very heavy to extremely heavy rains for parts of West Nepal and adjoining Himalayan foothills along Uttar Pradesh.
The causative systems continue to be the ones active over India — the monsoon trough, upper air cyclonic circulations over North-West Rajasthan and the latest one traced to over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh.
TURN OF FLOWS
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday also indicated a slight turning of flows over the South Peninsula and a veritable offshore trough along the Southeast Coast.
During the last 24 hours ending in the afternoon, widespread rainfall has been reported from Assam, Meghalaya, East Madhya Pradesh, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was fairly widespread over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and the remaining parts of Central India, North Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, the West Coast and extreme South Peninsular India.
A satellite picture on Sunday signalled the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, East, Central and South Peninsular India, East-Central and South Bay of Bengal, North Andaman Sea and South-East Arabian Sea.
The IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.
An outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested that the southerly flows feeding the trough along the southeast coast may taper off by Friday.
Fresh flows over Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal might get triggered by early next week, until which time a brief interlude would set in, as per the ECMWF outlook.
An IMD forecast until Wednesday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West Himalayas, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, the West Coast, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Indo-Gangetic plains outside Rajasthan.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand on Monday and decrease thereafter.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Pradesh, Interior Maharashtra and the rest of South Peninsular India.
However, rainfall activity may decrease over Tamil Nadu after two days, the IMD outlook said.
Category:
IMD Report,
India,
South West Monsoon
More on LA NINA effect
To some extend I too support LA NINA effect. The warmer west Pacific [Asian Region]and to some extend Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in 2010 Indian Summer Monsoon.
[1] The orientation of High pressure in Indian Ocean [Perhaps Mascarene High]and the cross equatorial winds are stronger and lash Indian west coast above 15 Deg Latitude.
[2]Is it due to weak trade winds in association with LA NINA ?
[3] Historical records of the year 1931 is somewhat identical with 2010 SWM pattern.
[4] Accordingly Karnataka may get rainfall in late AUG or early SEP. But NEM may or may NOT fair well.
[5] LA NINA may prevail for longer run say 24 to 36 months or even beyond.
[6]In that case SWM 2011 may not be good for Karnataka.
[Purely this is my presumption based on historical records and hear says from weather skeptics.]
Posted by Kaneyen
[1] The orientation of High pressure in Indian Ocean [Perhaps Mascarene High]and the cross equatorial winds are stronger and lash Indian west coast above 15 Deg Latitude.
[2]Is it due to weak trade winds in association with LA NINA ?
[3] Historical records of the year 1931 is somewhat identical with 2010 SWM pattern.
[4] Accordingly Karnataka may get rainfall in late AUG or early SEP. But NEM may or may NOT fair well.
[5] LA NINA may prevail for longer run say 24 to 36 months or even beyond.
[6]In that case SWM 2011 may not be good for Karnataka.
[Purely this is my presumption based on historical records and hear says from weather skeptics.]
Posted by Kaneyen
Category:
Articles,
El Nino,
Global Warming,
India,
South West Monsoon
More on Leh Rainfall and cloudburst
13th August, 2010 - Times of India
The cloudburst has again brought out the glaring lack of adequate documentation on such sporadic weather events. J Srinivasan, chairman of Divecha Centre for Climate Change and head of Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, tells TOI's Jayashree Nandi about the need for extensive research on extreme weather events like the cloudburst. Excerpts:
What do you think of the cloudburst disaster at Leh?
Cloudbursts are events in which high rainfall occur over a very small area, in a very short time span (typically more than 100 mm/hour for a few hours). We do not have much data about this phenomenon. However, such events have occurred earlier in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. For instance, many people were killed in a cloudburst at Pithoragarh (Uttarakhand) on August 7, 2009. These events are rare in Jammu and Kashmir and hence the Leh cloudburst was unexpected. Extreme rainfall events (rainfall more than 100 mm/day) have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. This year we had floods in Pakistan, Gujarat and now in Jammu and Kashmir.
How long did it rain in Leh and across how much area?
India Meteorological Department data says it rained between 1.30 am and 2 am in Leh on August 6. A weather station near Leh recorded only 12.8 mm of rainfall in 24 hours. These events are extremely localized in an area probably less than 30 square kilometres. In August, the normal rainfall in Leh is 15.4 mm and the highest recorded in this season was 51 mm. But this time, the rainfall was probably much higher than that.
Have such events taken place earlier? Is it similar to 2005 Mumbai floods?
Such events occur every year in mountainous regions. Many events are not reported because of insufficient data. For instance, if it happens in some remote areas of Himachal Pradesh and if there is no a weather station close by and there is no habitation in those areas, the event doesn't get reported. Leh cloudburst is comparable to Mumbai floods because it rained for over 12 hours in Mumbai.
Could this be due to climate change?
IMD observations show that events of extreme rainfall have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. And, most climate models predict that global warming will increase such events. We cannot claim that a specific extreme event is due to global warming although we know that the probability of such events will increase as the earth becomes warmer.
Have any new observations been made on climate science recently?
In March, this year a disputed island on the Bangladesh-India border called Talpatti disappeared completely. Such events will occur more often in the future. The impact of sea level rise will not be seen in one or two years because the changes are slow. Similarly in case of temperature rise, IPCC predicts that there will be three degrees rise in 100 years. So that means a .03 degrees rise every year. We will not notice these changes easily unless we look at the long-term trend.
Do you think our policies are robust enough to deal with climate change?
Global warming will have serious impact on our life within 30 to 40 years. We have to act immediately because the transition from the present fossil-fuel dependent economy to one based on renewable energy will take many decades. Sadly, the vision and leadership on global warming has been lacking.
The cloudburst has again brought out the glaring lack of adequate documentation on such sporadic weather events. J Srinivasan, chairman of Divecha Centre for Climate Change and head of Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, tells TOI's Jayashree Nandi about the need for extensive research on extreme weather events like the cloudburst. Excerpts:
What do you think of the cloudburst disaster at Leh?
Cloudbursts are events in which high rainfall occur over a very small area, in a very short time span (typically more than 100 mm/hour for a few hours). We do not have much data about this phenomenon. However, such events have occurred earlier in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. For instance, many people were killed in a cloudburst at Pithoragarh (Uttarakhand) on August 7, 2009. These events are rare in Jammu and Kashmir and hence the Leh cloudburst was unexpected. Extreme rainfall events (rainfall more than 100 mm/day) have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. This year we had floods in Pakistan, Gujarat and now in Jammu and Kashmir.
How long did it rain in Leh and across how much area?
India Meteorological Department data says it rained between 1.30 am and 2 am in Leh on August 6. A weather station near Leh recorded only 12.8 mm of rainfall in 24 hours. These events are extremely localized in an area probably less than 30 square kilometres. In August, the normal rainfall in Leh is 15.4 mm and the highest recorded in this season was 51 mm. But this time, the rainfall was probably much higher than that.
Have such events taken place earlier? Is it similar to 2005 Mumbai floods?
Such events occur every year in mountainous regions. Many events are not reported because of insufficient data. For instance, if it happens in some remote areas of Himachal Pradesh and if there is no a weather station close by and there is no habitation in those areas, the event doesn't get reported. Leh cloudburst is comparable to Mumbai floods because it rained for over 12 hours in Mumbai.
Could this be due to climate change?
IMD observations show that events of extreme rainfall have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. And, most climate models predict that global warming will increase such events. We cannot claim that a specific extreme event is due to global warming although we know that the probability of such events will increase as the earth becomes warmer.
Have any new observations been made on climate science recently?
In March, this year a disputed island on the Bangladesh-India border called Talpatti disappeared completely. Such events will occur more often in the future. The impact of sea level rise will not be seen in one or two years because the changes are slow. Similarly in case of temperature rise, IPCC predicts that there will be three degrees rise in 100 years. So that means a .03 degrees rise every year. We will not notice these changes easily unless we look at the long-term trend.
Do you think our policies are robust enough to deal with climate change?
Global warming will have serious impact on our life within 30 to 40 years. We have to act immediately because the transition from the present fossil-fuel dependent economy to one based on renewable energy will take many decades. Sadly, the vision and leadership on global warming has been lacking.
Category:
cloud burst
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)