Wednesday, August 11, 2010

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda, 9.15am, Partly cloudy with sunshine inbetween. Dense passing clouds from SW.

Monday, August 09, 2010

Chennai - Today touched a hot 36.6 C (3:14pm)... now 5:53pm having good Sea breeze.. chance of shower after 7 pm
This subdued shower activity to continue for another 4 days.
Today, entire India is having subdued monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/36wP

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Leh Cloudburst: How much it had rained ??

Source - Wall Street Journal, Hindu Business Line, Wikipedia

Sudden overnight rains caused flash floods in the town of Leh, the administrative center of the mountainous northern Ladakh region that borders China and Pakistan, killing more than 100 people and leaving hundreds injured, AP reported Friday. Many news reports described the downpour as a “cloudburst,” which the Indian Meteorological Department described Friday evening as a “disastrous weather event” in which “rate of rainfall may be of the order of 100mm [millimeters] per hour.”

Reports are that Leh received 48.6 mm rain in 60 seconds. In a special bulletin, the IMD said on Saturday that the high-impact event was so localised that that a nearby meteorological observatory of Indian Air Force (IAF) reported only 12.8 mm of rainfall during the 24 hours ending 5.30 a.m. on Friday. There is no official rainfall figure for the “fatal hours” available since it did not have an observatory in the region.

Comparing the Leh event with the year 2005 drencher over Mumbai, the latter was with two thunderstorms that poured 94 cm of rain in a radius of about 10 km around Mumbai together lasting about 18 hours on July 26 that year. In contrast, Colaba at the southern tip of Mumbai city had only 7 cm of rain during the same period. This is the nature of thunderstorms whose size and scale are small compared to low pressure vortices.

Based on the comparison the true rainfall figure in the affected area in Leh may never be known.
Many buildings crumbled after sudden rains and flash floods in Ladakh.

Rainfall is very, very scarce in the Ladakh region—it’s a dry, high-altitude region—so when it does happen it causes havoc because the houses and towns aren’t designed to deal with it. We were curious to find out exactly how much it had rained in millimeters, and whether this was typical for this time of year (it is monsoon season in India from June through September) and none of the day news stories carried the amount of rainfall.

A meteorologist at the Srinagar office of Indian Meteorological Department, G. R. Rathore, explained that the Srinagar office collected rainfall data for Leh from 1941 to 1981 (he put average annual rainfall for the period at just under 11 centimeters) and then stopped.

From 1981 on Mr. Rathore said that the IMD hasn’t had its own observatories in Ladakh and added that the Indian Air Force runs the three observatories there now. The armed forces have a strong presence in this region, which is part of India’s Kashmir state, because of its location bordering Pakistan and China. The IMD hopes to install one manned rain observatory in Leh by next summer and add several observatories across Ladakh as well, Mr. Rathore said.

According to him, the cloudburst lasted from 1:20 a.m. to 2:20 a.m. on Friday morning but he didn’t have data on how much rain had fallen in that hour because lines between Srinagar and Leh were down. He referred us to the weather section of the Indian Air Force in Srinagar for more information on the cloudburst. But at the Air Force, a senior official said that they weren’t supposed to disclose this information and referred us back to the civilian meteorological authorities. Getting this basic piece of data was starting to feel like a piece of classified information.The average for the whole month of august is 15.4 mm and the highest ever recorded in a 24-hour period is 51.3 mm, in August 1933.

Major Cloudburst Tragedies in India

  • August 31st, 1960 – 50mm of rain in 3hrs in Mandi and Suketi valley, Himachal Pradesh led to 103 deaths.
  • July, 1970 — Cloudburst in the upper catchment area led to a 15 metre rise in Alaknanda river. Entire river basin, from Hanumanchatti near Badrinath to Haridwar, affected; An entire village was swept away.
  • On August 15th 1997, 115 people were killed when a cloud burst came bustling and trail of death are all that is left behind in Chirgaon in Shimla district, Himachal Pradesh.
  • On August 17th, 1998 — A massive landslide following heavy rain and a cloudburst at Malpa village in Kali valley of Kumaon killed 250 people including 60 Kailash Mansarovar pilgrims. Among the dead was Odissi dancer Protima Bedi.
  • On July 16th 2003, About 40 persons were killed in flash floods caused by a cloudburst at Shilagarh in Gursa area of Kullu, Himachal Pradesh.
  • July 6th 2004, At least 17 people were killed and 28 injured when three vehicles were swept into Alaknanda river by heavy landslides triggered by a cloudburst that left nearly 5,000 pilgrims stranded near Badrinath shrine area in Uttaranchal's Chamoli district.
  • On August 16th 2007, 52 people were confirmed dead when a severe cloud burst occurred in in Bhavi village in Ghanvi, Himachal Pradesh.
  • On August 7th 2009, 38 people were killed in a landslide resulting from a cloudburst in Nachni area near Munshiyari in Pithoragatrh district of Uttarakhand.
  • On August 6th 2010, in Leh, a series of cloudbursts left 130 persons dead and over 600 injured in the frontier Leh town of Ladakh region in Jammu and Kashmir.

Record Cloudbursts

Duration Rainfall Location Date
1 minute 1.5 inches (38.10 mm) Barot, Himachal Pradesh, India 26 November, 1970
5 minutes 2.43 inches (61.72 mm) Port Bells, Panama 29 November, 1911
15 minutes 7.8 inches (198.12 mm) Plumb Point, Jamaica 12 May, 1916
20 minutes 8.1 inches (205.74 mm) Curtea-de-Arges, Romania 7 July, 1947
40 minutes 9.25 inches (234.95 mm) Guinea, Virginia, USA 24 August, 1906

Saturday, August 07, 2010

The low, has literally "whizzed" past,and thru the central regions, and by saturday night, is already over south Rajasthan/Gujarat ! Surprised at its super speed.Yes, I did mention it will whizz thru, but that was supposed to reach Rajasthan as per my assumption by Sunday!

Overnite rains were particularly heavy in Marathwada. The chief amounts of heavy rains in the region as on Saturday morning in cms: Parbhani-17, Kinwat, Hingoli 16 each, ,Kalamnuri-15, Mahur-14, Bhokar, Audha-13 each, Sengaon-12, Nanded, Umari, Ardhapur-11 each, Bhadgaon, Basmat-9 each,
Yeola,Loha-7 each, Billoli-6, Kopargaon, Igatpuri, Nandgaon, Gaganbawda, Sillod, Kannad, Soegaon, Khandar, Ahmedpur-5 each,

Saturday daytime, was good, weather wise and rainfall wise for Marathwada and western Vidharbha regions. Rainfall throughout the day was fai
rly good, ranging from 20-50 mms in various cities.
But the day was super cool ! 7c below normal at 22c (day's max) at Aurangabad and Jalna. In Western Vidharbha too, it was cool at 21.9c in the day at Washim and Yeotmal was 22c. all almost 5-7c below. Shirdi was a pleasant 22.7c.

With the system moving fast, I see it going west into Pakistan by Sunday itself. And carrying alongwith it all its clouding. Now? Total decrease in rainfall in the rear of the system!
Regions which have benefited from this wet wave can now breathe a respite from rains, and regions, such as the southern peninsula areas, will remain in "status Quo". (sorry for repeating this term :))
Could even mean lesser rainfall in the already deficit hilly areas of Karnataka. I see a drier central and southern peninsula next week.
Personally seeing a low around the 13th. in the bay. But should be followed daily .

Mumbai got 2 mms of rain on Friday, the last of the "rest" day !
On Saturday, it has rained 37 mms during the day till 6 pm readings.But as i mentioned in yesterday's forecast, I do not see much in this system and would continue the same forecast for Sunday as yesterday's. Rain decreasing on Sunday with around 25 mms of rain.Monday thru wednesday will be days with little rainfall for Mumbai, with sunny intervals.

International Weather News:
This week's hottest temperature was 47.8c at Death Valley, California.
This week's coldest temperature was, minus 47.8c at Russia's VostokAntarctic research station.
In Nicosia, Cyprus, the temperature of 45.6C, on the 1st. of August 2010, was the highest recorded since the beginning of last century, the second highest was 44.4C, recorded in Nicosia on August 8, 1956. The maximum temperature in Nicosia on Sunday was 8.4C higher than normal while minimum temperature reached 29C, 7C higher than normal.

5:30pm, Heavy showers all along N, N-N-E Himalayan ranges.. so more flooding possible in all N.Indian major rivers ... http://ow.ly/i/34mS
5:30pm, More massive heavy showers for Pakistan and Gujarat ... http://ow.ly/i/34mS
Leh rescue operations suspeded due to heavy rains‎... http://ow.ly/2mmxb
Cloudbursts ravage Leh: Death toll reaches 130‎ ... http://ow.ly/2mmwA