Will monsoon winds get organised again over South India? When?... http://ow.ly/1TWbI

RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda @ 9.45AM- Sunny, but dark passing clouds from SW.will it rain today !?

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 13.. Almost vanishing over Oman, predicted to move EAST... http://ow.ly/1TWas

Cyclone "Phet"... Good Satellite images

2-Jun-2010

3-Jun-2010

Tropical Cyclone Phet lingered over the Arabian Sea, off the coast of Oman, on June 3, 2010, although the storm’s wind speeds had dropped since the previous day. The U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Tropical Cyclone Phet had maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (195 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour). The storm was located roughly 220 nautical miles (410 kilometers) south-southeast of Masqat (Muscat), Oman.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on June 3, 2010. Phet stretches almost the entire length of Oman’s coastline, and extends hundreds of kilometers out to sea.
The JTWC forecast that the storm would weaken as it approached Oman, veer toward the east, and finally dissipate after making a second landfall north of Karachi, Pakistan.

Will monsoon winds get organised again? When?

Monsoon winds in lower latitude will NOT get organised till there is a sizable pressure gradient. Once Cyclone "PHET" is disintegrating there is every possibility that Pressure Gradient Force (PGF) and Coriolis balance will appear to form Geostrophic South-west winds.

RT @JenDelgadoCNN: Tropical Cyclone Phet will exit the coast of Oman coast late Friday/early Saturday AM. WIll weaken & head toward Pakistan

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Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 13.. Almost vanishing over Oman, predicted to move EAST

Almost vanishing over Oman. It's predicted to move EAST and intensify before hitting Pakistan.


JTWC warning
---------------------------------

040300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A
HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO OMAN, AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TRACK
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING AS TC
03A MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NGPS, GFS, GFDN, AND EGRR ALL INDICATE THAT TC 03A WILL TURN WEST-
WARD, AND LOITER OVER OMAN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS NOT
LIKELY AS CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AROUND THE STR. ECMF AND WBAR REMAIN THE ONLY
TWO MODELS THAT CURRENTLY SHOW A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE
TRACK OF PHET, AND THIS FORECAST FAVORS THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE
BRIEF TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY,
AS MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM,
HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WILL KEEP TC 03A ON A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. LANDFALL IN PAKISTAN BY TAU 60 WILL CAUSE A
RAPID WEAKENING WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. 

JTWC projected path
---------------------------------

IMD warning
------------------------

ARB 02/2010/28                                                                                                    Dated: 04.06.2010

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST

Sub:   Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ crossing Oman coast.

            The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, 4^th June 2010 near latitude 21.5⁰N and long. 59.5⁰E very close to Oman coast, about 170 km south-southwest of Sur (Oman) and 150 km north-northeast of Masirah island (Oman) and 1050 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 950 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan),Latest observations indicate that system is now crossing Oman coast near lat. 21.5 degree N.           

            Available observations and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models guidance suggest that the system would move northward for some time while weakening gradually, then recurvenortheastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea and move northeastwards Pakistan coast.

           

            Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
04-06-2010/0530	21.5/59.5	120-130 gusting to 140
04-06-2010/1130	22.0/59.5	120-130 gusting to 140
04-06-2010/1730	22.5/59.5	110-120 gusting to 130
04-06-2010/2330	23.0/60.0	110-120 gusting to 130
05-06-2010/0530	23.5/60.5	100-110 gusting  to 120
05-06-2010/1730	24.0/62.0	90-100 gusting to 110
06-06-2010/0530	24.5/64.0	80-90 gusting to 100
06-06-.2010/1730	25.0/66.0	80-90 gusting to 100
07-06-.2010/0530	25.5/68.0	70-80 gusting to 90

           

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.

Satellite at 11am IST
-----------------------------------

South west monsoon over S-W India will pickup speed only after 10-Jun

At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, Cyclone "Phet" .... http://ow.ly/1TVRd

At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, Cyclone "Phet"

Friday, June 04, 2010

At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, "Phet" is digging itself into the Gulf of Oman, at 21.5N and 59.2E, and its rain periphery is in a semi circular arc around Oman. At 956mb and 90 Knots winds, it is a force to reckon with. Enough has been repeated about its anticipitated course, and its forecasted movement towards the North-East. As we have discussed, it is lagging behind the W.D.which would have originally steered it Northeast,away from Oman,but now is left to be guided by another low aloft.This time the "new" low is not as effective as the one which was earliar supposed to have steered it eastwards.

The original W.D, which was supposed to guide the cyclone,moved into India on Wednesday,and precipitated rain in the states of Kashmir and H.P. Snow was also reported from the higher reaches of both the states.
In H.P, the Kangra valley was lashed by heavy rain accompanied by high velocity of winds this morning. The higher reaches of the Dhauladhar mountain range experienced snowfall, giving relief to the residents from scorching heat as the temperature dropped considerably.

Another factor, i would think about again is a little delay in the arrival of the MJO. According to the forecasts, given on this link, the MJO wave, which will bring the Monsoon current to the west coast alongwith it, is now expected around 15th.June. Earlier it was estimated to be around 10th. June. I hope the estimate is correct, as all hopes on the fast revival of the Monsoon current, for all of India,depends on this MJO wave.