South West monsoon renewal ??

Latest satellite shot shows South Bay of Bengal is active again with heavy monsoon convective showers.
This is happening after 3 days of lull in that region.

Latest LOW level wind pattern analysis also shows the south Bay of Bengal and Srilanka will pickup renewed monsoon showers from Friday.

Moreover the S-W wind can also be seen upto Gujarat coast due to the Cylone "Phet" effect. This will provoke more Pre-monsoon showers along entire west coast today.

As soon as the Cyclone "Phet" weakens in another 3 days the monsoon showers along Kerala and Karnataka coast will pick up. It'll be weak till 10-Jun and then it'll pick up.

Mumbai - The pre monsoon thundershowers have started, but will remain weak and scattered till Sunday

Update on Cyclone "Phet" .. Moving in N-W direction, slowly and slightly weakened .. http://ow.ly/1TqFr

Chennai - Touched a max of 39.2°C (11:43am).. and now 12:50pm we have breeze from S-E and temp. is 35.7°C

RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda; 9.40 AM. It is partly cloudy, no rain since yesterday evening.

Update on "Phet"

Update on "Phet":
This is one cyclone that keeps us guessing ! Latest surprises? Position as on 3rd.June 6.00 am and satellite image as on 3rd. June 11.0 am both IST.
1.It continues to track North-West even now, and moved on to 18.6N 59.4E.
2.It is 300 NM South of Muscat. 
3. It has weakened a bit. From 929 mb to 937 mb, and winds from 125 Knots to 115 knots.
4. And slowed its movement from 6 knots to 3 knots.
5. The cyclone is so "slow" and Lethargic", that the W.D. which was supposed to have steered it to the East, has already reached North India, and is precipitating rain over Kashmir and H.P. today !
Masirah reports winds of 20 Knts, and the cyclone is 115 NM away.
But, as mentioned, still maintaining a North-West track,will enter the North-East coast of Oman around evening of 3rd.June,and re-emerge in the Sea.
My doubt. Will it, after entering the Arabian Sea again, reach upto Gujarat coast ?? Or dissipitate before that??

Doubts and questions are constantly raised over the Monsoon behavior now, after "Phet". Let us understand, that a bit of re-organisation and re-grouping is now required in the Arabian Sea. "Phet" has messed up the flow !
Since "Phet" is now far and "out of reach" of the South Kerala coast, a bit of organised formation seems to have started. But, I feel, proper south-westerly cross flow will start once the influence of "Phet" is done with in the Arabian Sea. Say after Monday, 7th. June. 
And with the help and boosting of a MJO, which is estimated to show up in our region around the 10th. of June,we could see a fast picking up of the Monsoon current thence.

With all activity and action in the western side, the eastern branch, the east entire east coast will remain practically dry till the 10th. at least. No system popping up, the rains will be restricted to the North Eastern states this week.

Mumbai: The pre monsoon thundershowers have started, but will remain weak and scattered till Sunday.

RT @piyush_veere: Sun was so mercyless today..now at last some cool winds r soothing us here in patna. @weatherofindia (9:12pm, 2-Jun)

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" .. update # 10 ... within striking distance.. Oman ... http://ow.ly/1ToiD

Cyclone "03 A - Phet"... Update # 10 ... within striking distance. Oman

JTWC warning
--------------------------------

030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH
OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM PGTW AT 5.5/6.5. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED, BUT REMAINS ON A
CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MASIRAH
INDICATE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 115 NM AWAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 03A, WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTH-
WEST MONSOONAL FLOW. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT
DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC
03A. THE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE INTENSITY VALUES
TO REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A MOVES OVER LAND, INCREASING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE TRACK FOR PHET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF PHET REMAINS IN PLACE. A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING TC 03A TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. TC 03A WILL TRACK MORE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS TC 03A BEGINS TO HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS IT CROSSES OVER WATER
INTO PAKISTAN, BUT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 OVER LAND.
THE TRACK SPEEDS FOR TC 03A HAVE BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWER TRANSITION TO THE
MID-LATITUDES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28
FEET.

JTWC projected path
------------------------------------

Satellite shot at 0300Z
------------------------------------

PHET-030610-0200 UTC

On this day 03.06.2010 / 0200 UTC PHET is located near 18.6 Degree North and 59.4 Degree East. V-Max= 115kt and central pressure is 937. [Courtesey : US NAVY] The SW monsoonal feeder is seen defelected from PHET. As such there is more possibility that it may enter OMEN coast and take recurvature inside land [as Laila did last time in Indian East coast] and reemerge to hit Pakistan or Indian coast.