Friday, May 21, 2010
Cyclone "01 B" .. Update # 18 .. Stationary over Andhra
IMD warning 7:30am IST
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JTWC warning
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JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8am IST
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The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010 near Machilipatnam(Andhra Pradesh).
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve into a northeasterly direction towards Orissa.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period.
Gale force wind with speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Damage to thatched huts, breaking of the tree branches, causing minor damage to power and communication lines.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation.
Forecast for Orissa: Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal & south Orissa and isolated heavy over remaining parts of Orissa during next 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa during the same period.pFishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010.
JTWC warning
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210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 80.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED INLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND THERE ARE NO NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, PARALLELING THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF INDIA WHILE WEAKENING. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, AND DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER LAND PRIOR TO ENTERING BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, IN THE VICINITY OF BANGLADESH, AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PULL UP MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8am IST
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Thursday, May 20, 2010
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 17 .. Started moving North-East
IMD warning at 17:30hrs IST
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JTWC projected path
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JTWC warning
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Satellite shot at 7pm IST
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The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 near latitude 15.80N and long.80.50E close to Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh). The latest observations at 1630 hours IST suggest that the system is now crossing the coast close to Bapatla.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve in northeasterly direction towards Orissa.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur , Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.
Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal : Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over south Orissa from today, the 20th May and GangeticWest Bengal. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.
Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010.
JTWC projected path
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JTWC warning
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201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z
Satellite shot at 7pm IST
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