Monday, May 17, 2010
latest GFS model shows that the System "92B" may not intensify further but it'll touch Tamilnadu coast on 20-May .. http://ow.ly/i/1BkJ
Present high level wind direction is from East to West.. this may guide the present "92B" towards Tamilnadu coast .. http://ow.ly/i/1BkA
"92B" is upgraded to become as tropical cyclone.
Latest sat. shot
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JTWC:
----------------
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SOURCE THAT IS
PROVIDING GOOD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 90.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSTRUCTIVELY
ORGANIZE AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN A 170315 METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE WRAPPING TOWARDS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
170315Z ASCAT CONFIRMS A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT LLCC. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE AS THE DISTURBANCE SITS
NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
-----------------
JTWC:
----------------
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SOURCE THAT IS
PROVIDING GOOD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 90.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSTRUCTIVELY
ORGANIZE AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN A 170315 METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE WRAPPING TOWARDS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
170315Z ASCAT CONFIRMS A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT LLCC. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE AS THE DISTURBANCE SITS
NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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