Low pressure system -- 90B

Satellite pic at 17:00 hrs IST.

Yesterdays LOW formations near the south-east of Srilanka over the Southern bay has moved North-west and it's threatening to form into a Well marked LOW or even a Depression in next 24 hrs.
Going by the latest satellite pic, we can see flurry of cloud formations near the North-east of Srilanka over the Bay and near central and North Tamilnadu coast.

Here is the latest warnings issued by JTWC.
*******************************
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 83.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 82.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AND
A 082007Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER A BROAD REGION OF TURNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR
*******************************
From afternoon of 9-Mar-09, We were hearing some heavy electric showers down south of Tamilnadu and thru Central coastal region of Tamilnadu.
And more heavy rains forecast for Delta region and Southern Tamilnadu. And some for Northern Tamilnadu as well.
Chennai:
It's cloudy and heavy from Morning. Temperature was mild thru the day. No Sunlight.
We had some mild sprinkles of rain.
We'll get some mild showers or strong drizzles late into the Night or early morning tomorrow (10-Mar-09).
Good signs for Rain are, Clouds are getting heavy by evening and wind is from East-south-east for most of the day.
Latest GFS says the system will intensify further and will cross the Delta regions of Tamilnadu.

And pressure maps show "Still a high pressure Anti-cyclone" circulation can be seen over the Northern Bay
AND
"Total percipitable water" over the Southern Bay region has increased dramatically.
This will favor more such LOW formations in coming weeks.
Latest BBC predictions say more rain for Delta region and some for us too.

Formations over Southern Bay

As expected we are following lots of cloud formations over the South Bay, near the 5th parallel and close to South-east of Srilanka.
BBC predictions indicate we might get some showers from this disturbance early next week, But the GFS predicts that the 'LOW' will brush the southern Srilanka and dissipate just south of India over the Ocean.

Chennai:
Still the AIR current is from South-South-East.
This pattern is continuing for the past 2 weeks. Since then the Day temperature & Humidity is on the rise.
Yesterday's high was 35.4°C (11:50am).
We will have a RAIN break soon, within this month end.
It's raining heavy in New-zealand.

Summer 2009 starts with "Super Heat"

Summer 2009 starts
Chennai:
Many Chennai people wouldn't have witnessed this kind of "Hot & Humid" February.
This kind of Early HEAT was not there for the past 5 to 10 years.
Today (1-Mar-09) it even reached 37.5°C (12:35pm).
Temperature and Humidity rised above normal after 15th of february.
Take a look at the past 5 days plot of Humidity.


Please note "All Time record for March"
High: 40.6 C (29.3.1953)
Low: 16.7 C (19.3.XXXX)
24 Hour Rain: 88.1 mm (5.3.1944)
Total Rain: 262.6 mm (1944)
This year we might witness a NEW high temperature record for the month of March.

Last year we got some rains due to a Cyclone...
What abt RAIN forecast this year this month?? we'll have a look at the latest GFS.

Going by the GFS, we can clearly notice a Anti-cyclone over Andhra-coast and a good Upper air Cyclonic wind circulation near the South-east of Srilanka.
This Cyclonic circulation might trigger a LOW formation in next 5 to 10 days.

Going by the latest Sea Surface Temperature image... it shows a gradually increase in SST over the whole of Southern Bay and more parts over the South-Arabian Sea.
Still the SST is cold over the northern Bay.
The SST rise over the Southern Bay will favor a LOW formation soon.

Getting warm

On 13-Feb-09, it was the HOTTEST day so far this Year... 35.8 deg.
Nowadays the HUMIDITY has also gone up slightly.
And the MIN temperature has also gone up by 2 deg... it's around 23 deg in the early mornings.
Here is the last 5 days MAX temperature graph plot...

Observe the slowly rising trend.
Winter at it's end... And all signs of "GOOD" summer ahead.
We might have a Electric shower around 1st or 2nd week of March and then we will move into the HARSH summer months.

Latest Sea surface temperature map shows... there's a rise in temperature over the arabian sea along the western coast of India. This will continue to increase in coming months till South-west monsoon.

Equator belt south of India is witnessing lots of cloud formations. These are good signs for Early South-west Monsoon.

Twenty20 India v Sri Lanka 2009 @ Colombo Full Match

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Global temperature anomaly for year 2008

Global surface temperature anomaly for December-08

Is the global climate changing?

Yes. But let’s look more closely at what that means. We can start with the time from 1856 to the present. We have a good record of global temperature for this recent period. Accurate temperature measurements were made at many locations around the world.

There have been some sharp year-to-year fluctuations. During some periods, such as the 1940s, there was a drop in global temperature, but the overall trend is up when we look at the past century and a half.

For more please visit this..
http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm

MAX temperature up by 2 deg

Chennai:
During the past 5 days the max temperature was UP by 2 deg... this is a significant change. But the MIN temperature is almost the same at 20/21 degrees... this has remained the same for the past 20 days.
We are almost at the end of short chennai Winter.
This winter was mild and even one can say it's bit colder than the previous year.
Now the max temperature is hovering around 31.8°C
This will increase by another 1 deg after 15-Feb... and will rise to 34 deg around 10-Mar-09.
After that every Chennai person will know, what and how it'll be...:)

Today morning we had some cloud formations over the east-south-east.
Other than this, there will not be any more significant changes in weather for next 3 days.

NOW in INDIA we have 3 online "Personal weather stations"
The new entry is from "Thenpattinam, Tamilnadu".
We are trying to find out WHO has hosted it..??
Thenpattinam weather can be accessed thru this LINK Thenpattinam weather
Others can be found here... Personal Weather Stations in INDIA

Very old maps of India and Chennai

South India 1907

India 1893

Madras 1893

Madras Old


Taken from various websites..