Going to be a Thrilling Final day...

It's going to be a thrilling final day of 1st test match in Chennai (Ind v Eng).
What's in store the day and days ahead?
Going by the latest satellite pic, shows nothing for next 2 days.
That's good news for the test match.

Chennai, was bit hot today and humid. And even the yesterday's night temperature was not that low (around 25 degrees). And in night we even had a small drizzle or two.
North-east is almost at it's end now.
Some GFS models suggest that we might have a LAST depression almost the same area as that of "07B".
Take a look at this model...
A low pressure system indicated to form around 16-Dec-08.

This system will not move north because still there is a ANTI cyclone in northern bay.
Studying the "Sea Temperature Charts (STC)" for the past 4 days suggests that the HEAT potential for the LOW pressure system in southern bay is decreasing.

"Save energy" - visuals #1

Energy Conservation DAY

Tip from "Clean Energy Ideas"
If you are interested in how to conserve energy, then this article can be of use to you in explaining the basic and advanced methods of how we can conserve energy including the use of natural resources.
Using natural energy resources doesn't necessarily mean you will conserve any energy, yet we do advise every household to research the possibility of implementing natural energy resources to influence their home power supply. This will conserve the fossil fuels we are currently consuming at an alarming rate.
Many little things can be done in an attempt to conserve energy in the home. It is knowing how to do these little energy conservation processes that many people do not know about, understand, or just don't care.
Another way relating to how we can conserve energy is to ensure whenever we have finished using appliances that may have a light on them (such as a standby light), we switch the appliance off, or unplug after use.
Little things can make a big difference in conserving energy around the home, and this is especially true for dishwashers, washing machines and dryers.
Modern dishwashers have energy saving wash cycles, we strongly advise the use of such features, washing machines can be set to lower temperature washes, when used with the right washing powder, and a dryer, well if you own a dryer, get rid of it and dry your washing naturally on a washing line.
Hybrid cars can make a difference to your carbon footprint, and can help you save energy. No, they will not eliminate carbon emissions from their exhausts, yet they will greatly reduce the amount of carbon you pump into the air each year.
The only reason you should need a 4x4 vehicle is if you live in a rough terrain area, or constantly snowy area.
When you choose your next car, be sure to check the miles per gallon to see how efficient your car will be, this not only helps the environment but it saves you money on fuel too.
When conserving energy, we can also look to our heating methods, why not reduce your heating thermostat or radiators by only 1 degree for a lengthy time, and compare your heating bill?
If you recycle more, you will be helping to conserve energy put into making new versions of what you have recycled, and this also reduces the burden on landfill sites and incinerators which are not good for the environment.

"Brown clouds" - images

"Brown clouds" threaten health in Asian cities

Taken from http://southasia.oneworld.net
Man-made atmospheric brown clouds fed by black carbon and soot are masking Asian cities and causing glacial melting and extreme weather events, says the latest UNEP report. These clouds containing toxic particles and carcinogens risk the health and livelihoods of three billion people, warn scientists.

A three-kilometre-thick “brown cloud” of man-made pollution, which stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China to the western Pacific Ocean, is making Asian cities darker, speeding up the melting of Himalayan glaciers and impacting human health, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report.

Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs), resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass, has resulted in the formation of particles such as black carbon and soot which absorb sunlight and heat the air, experts write in the study released today in Beijing.

The clouds also “mask” the actual warming impact of climate change by anywhere between 20 and 80 per cent because they include sulfates and other chemicals which reflect sunlight and cool the surface.

Shifting weather patterns
The artificial lowering of temperature by ABCs is leading to sharp shifts in weather patterns, causing significant drying in northern China while increasing the risk of flooding in the Asian nation’s south. Monsoon precipitation over India and South-East Asia has dropped up to seven per cent since the 1950s, with the summer monsoon both weakening and shrinking.

Meanwhile, the health and food security of three billion people in Asia are threatened by ABCs, which impacts air quality and agriculture.

Achim Steiner, UNEP’s Executive Director, voiced hope that “Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia” will serve as an early warning of the phenomenon, which he hopes will now be “firmly on the international community’s radar.”

He called on developed countries to help their poorer counterparts attain the technology needed to spur ‘green’ economic growth.

“In doing so, they can not only lift the threat of climate change but also turn off the soot-stream that is feeding the formation of atmospheric brown clouds in many of the world’s regions,” said Steiner.

Livelihoods at stake

The new publication points out 13 megacities as being ABC ‘hotspots’: Bangkok, Beijing, Cairo, Dhaka, Karachi, Kolkata, Lagos, Mumbai, New Delhi, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tehran. Soot levels in these cities comprise 10 per cent of the total mass of all man-made particles.

Since the 1970s, the Chinese city of Guangzhou, among other cities, has witnessed “dimming” – or reduction of sunlight – of more than 20 per cent, it notes.

The solar heating of the atmosphere by ABCs is “suggested to be as important as greenhouse gas warming in accounting for the anomalously large warming trend observed in the elevated regions” such as the Himalayan-Tibetan region, the study says, leading to the retreat of glaciers.

Further, the clouds contain toxic aerosols, carcinogens and other harmful particles, which could result in more people suffering from respiratory disease and cardiovascular problems.

While the effects of the clouds on food production and farmers’ livelihood could be immense, more research must be done to determine their precise role, it acknowledges, adding that the possible impact of ABCs could include elevated levels of ground-level ozone, which could result in massive crop losses of up to 40 per cent in Asia.

Scientists behind the report – produced by UNEP’s Project Atmospheric Brown Cloud – stress that brown clouds also can be found in parts of North America, Europe, Southern Africa and the Amazon Basin, and that they also require urgent and detailed research

"Brown Clouds" Add to Global Warming

Taken from Livescience.com
Pollution-filled "brown clouds" over the Indian Ocean could warm parts of the lower layers of Earth’s atmosphere as much as greenhouse gases do, a new study finds.

Aerosols, or tiny particles suspended in the air, make up clouds of pollution and are thought to have an overall cooling effect on the atmosphere as they scatter incoming light back out to space. Scientists suspect that this cooling effect could mitigate some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.

But some aerosols, particularly soot, are very good at absorbing the sun's rays, and this absorption heats the layer of the atmosphere in which they sit.

How the heating from these aerosols compares to that from greenhouse gases has been largely unknown, but this new study, detailed in the Aug. 2 issue of the journal Nature, found that the warming from the two sources is comparable.

Brown clouds
During the six-month tropical dry season, soot and other aerosols waft over the Indian Ocean from Asia and form plumes of pollution known as "atmospheric brown clouds".

The researchers used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to measure the concentration of the aerosols over the ocean and how much heat they absorbed at different levels of the atmosphere.

The first half of the study period saw little pollution and little atmospheric heating, but during the second half, the brown clouds rolled in and atmospheric heating increased by 50 percent.

Using these results, the researchers modeled the heating effects of brown clouds in the region from 1950 to 2000 and found that it was about the same as that caused by greenhouse gases.

Himalayas and megacities

This study shows that the regional influence of aerosols, not just the global average seen in estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, may be very important, said Peter Pilewskie of the University of Colorado at Boulder, who was not involved with the study.

"And, interestingly, that influence could either enhance (warm, as we've seen in this study) or mitigate (cool) the expected warming by greenhouse gases," Pilewskie said in an email interview.

The overall warming trend caused by greenhouse gases and aerosols in the area have caused the lower atmospheric layer to warm by 0.25 degrees Celsius per decade—twice the rate of warming at the surface, Pilewskie said in an analysis of the study.

This warming has had enormous implications for the Himalayas, where warming has led to a rapid glacier melt.

"The large clouds of pollution in Asia absorb enough solar energy to have climatic impacts," Pilewskie said.

Pilewskie added that other studies are investigating the possible climatic effects of pollution plumes drifting off from megacities (those with 10 million people or more), though he noted that as fewer aerosols are emitted due to the development of cleaner combustion processes, the influence of aerosols is likely to diminish in the future.

Day 1, "mild day" and "dry"

Day 1, of the 1st test match between Ind and Eng.
Thru the day there were some baseless cloud formations (0% threat).
Maximum temperature was around 30 degrees.
Even the humidity also gone down.
Humidity now (9:42PM) is 71% and decreasing.
Going by latest satellite pic and GFS models..
Next 4 days of the match will go on like today.
90% no chance of rain.

Is there any rain around in Tamilnadu?
YES, still there are some scatered showers in South Extreme Tamilnadu.
Papanasam (Tirunelveli dt) recorded a heavy rainfall of 7 centimetres
Devala (Nilgiris dt) 6, Mudukur and Orathandu (both Thanjavur dt), R.S.Mangalam (Ramanathapuram dt), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli dt), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore dt), Chatrapatti (Dindigul dt), Kodaikanal 3 each

And lastly, latest pic shows no sign of "07B" in Arabian sea.

Cricket weather - 1st Test, Ind v Eng at Chennai

Weather forecast for 1st cricket test match between India and England at Chennai, from 11-Dec-08 to 15-Dec-08.

Before going into forecast, take a look at the latest satellite pic from IMD.
Since the remnant of "07B" is moving north in Arabian sea, there's a possibility that the cloud formations in the South-Bay of Bengal (near srilanka) can move inland and cause some scaterred showers over Tamilnadu.
And recent 5 day COLA GFS models suggests that there'll be showers for Tamilnadu coast after 13-Dec-08.
Forecast for the match days:
Partly cloudly with sunshine thru all days of the match.
Since the North-east current is strong, there are 60% chance of mild/sharp showers in early mornings, before the start of play. And 50% chance of showers in late evening also, that too after the match time is over.
So RAIN will not affect the course of play during the first 3 days.
Last 2 days of the match might be affected by some heavy sharp showers, that too a 70% possibility.
We'll keep tracking the weather conditions of the match.

Any life left in "07B" ??

Here is the latest from JTWC.
**************************************
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 78.5E, IS NOW NEAR 6.7N 74.7E APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAS TRACKED GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
091439Z SSMI PASS SHOW CONVECTION AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REDUCED IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AND
BROKEN UP INTO FRAGMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA
OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN ARABIAN
SEA IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO A WEAK LLCC AND
INFLUX OF DRY COOL AIR INTO 07B, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
*************************************
Going by latest satellite pic, "07B" has huge cloud mass and it has moved North further into Arabian sea. No worries for India as of now.

Cyclone scare looms over Chennai test..!!!!!

"Cyclone scare looms over Chennai test " - Mytoday SMS on my mobile.
This is the SMS message i got from "Mytoday".
I don't know which Cyclone are they dealing with.
We can assure all Cricket fans that the MATCH(1st test, Ind v Eng) will not get disturbed by rain. There may be a Shower or two for the first day of the match(11-Dec-08).
Look at the latest satellite pic,

Nothing significant for Chennai and rest of Tamilnadu.
Kanyakumari district is getting heavy showers from morning today. Other showers are scattered thru rest of Tamilnadu.
Here is some rainfall data recorded till 8:30AM today (IMD)
Puducherry Airport and Tiruvarur 9 each, Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt), Nagapattinam and Aravakurichi (Karur dt) 8 each and Parangipettai, Kodavasal and Valangaiman (both Tiruvarur dt) and Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram dt) 7 each
Chennai:
From Morning we were getting drizzles and some mild showers.
Even these showers will die down from tomorrow morning.
No near threat from Bay for us...
We think that's the END of this North-east season.
What happened to 07B..??
GFS suggests that the 07B over south-arabian sea will form into a rare Winter-Arabian Sea-Depression. No predictions on it's movement yet. Probably north-west.