SUGGESTION

Thanks for all the visits & comments.
In fact each comment by itself is an article in nature.
One suggestion from me:
Shall WE start a common HOSTED website (blog kind) for "India weather, climate, environment...".
In that WE can allow each APPROVED & REGISTERED members to post articles.
If YOU are interested in joining ME with this venture pls mail me at
freedownloadshop@gmail.com

Regional IMD weather report

Checkout latest IMD regional weather report ...
http://education.vsnl.com/imdchennai/rdwr.htm

Another depression soon...

According to latest JWTC tracking of another depression near Vietnam.
See for urself...

"05B - Khai-muk" - Final

WE(Chennai) missed the Minor-cyclone's action.
It moved thru South-Andhra and it was quiet a big cloud mass yesterday evening.
Even we were in its southern band.
That's why we got a typical depression style rainfall yesterday(15-Nov-08, 5PM) evening(starting with mild drizzle & then slightly heavy).
The heavy drizzle continued till 3 AM in the morning.

Now the depression is dissipating fast.
And it's remnence can be seen over interior-karnataka.
We received around 15.2 mm of rain.
Today (16-Nov-08,12:49PM) it's clear and with patchy clouds around.
Humidity is little bit high.
For next 48 hrs we can expect clear skies with some passing showers after Today.

Latest on "05B" - No name yet

According to me it's moving north and slightly weak at this stage...

IMD's story:
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A depression over southeast and adjoining south west Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of yesterday, the 13th November 2008 near lat.11.5° N and long. 85.5° E, about 600 kms east-southeast of Chennai. It then moved northwestwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 14th November 2008, near lat. 12.5 N and Long. 85.0 E about 520 km east-southeast of Chennai and 600 km southeast of Machlipatanam. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a northwesterly direction towards coastal Andhra Pradesh. Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas of Tamil Nadu during next 48 hours commencing from today, the 14th November 2008 afternoon.
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Latest JWTC projection and satellite pic...
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REQUEST

If anyone reading/following this blog from South-Andhra or Chennai.

Please try to take "SNAPS" or "VIDEO" of the impact of CYCLONE and post it in FLICKR or YOUTUBE or Mail it to "freedownloadshop@gmail.com"

Dont' forget to send us the LINK, we'll publish it here.!

Thanks
ADMIN

Cyclone "05B"... now a cyclone

Still it's not Named, Anyway it's "05B".
Look at the latest projection by JWTC...


It's destined to HIT South-Andhra. This is happenning after almost 2 years (according to my memory, I'll clarify on this later)

Chennai lies in a least danger zone.
Sky is cloudy and will be cloudy.
Typical sky before a Cyclone.
If the cyclone gathers speed and moves as it is now... then we can expect light showers from Today evening.

Some text from JWTC:
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AT 140000Z TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05B WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
84.8E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31
PGTW 140300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS
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Cyclonic formation "91 B"

Yesteday we did not get any rains till today (13-Nov-08) morning.
Now (12:03 PM) we are experiencing some drizzles & a passing shower.
But good thing is it's heavily cloudy and with good rain bearing clouds forming all over North, north-east and East.
This might be the signs of things to come, because we are tracking a Fairly potential Tropical depression/Cyclone... almost parallel to Chennai.

Here is the latest tracking info from www.nrlmry.navy.mil
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 89.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MADRAS,
INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
VECTION, THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CONFINED TO THE THE PERIPHERIES OF THE
CIRCULATION, DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A
121105Z SSMI IMAGE. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.********************************************
More abt this from Jim's Accuweather.com Blog...
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The broad mass of showers and thunderstorms is loosely organized, but shows good outflow aloft--this is essential to "close the loop" (inflow, rising, condensation and energy release, outflow, sinking) that is exhibited by any tropical storm.
My (learned?) guess is that a tropical cyclone will arise from this mass. Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu would be the likely targets for the center of whatever becomes of this entity.
Beyond the question of cyclone/no cyclone, there is the problem of upcoming rainfall (it would be deemed "North East Monsoon" rain) over the south of India (and Sri Lanka). There is going to be some, and there will be locally heavy rain (scattered if no cyclone, focus near landfall if a cyclone).
An aspect of the upcoming rains in southern India has arisen that I had not earlier foreseen. This would be an outbreak of thunderstorms along the west coast and Western Ghats northward to at least greater Mumbai during the first part of next week. A vigorous short wave trough in the Westerlies (Western Disturbance), swinging east from the Khaleej by way of Iran, would play a part in this scenario, were it to happen.
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Some info from Accuweather - Blog

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As the week gets into full swing, it is a good time to pause and assess what is happening, broadly, over the northern Indian Ocean region. The roughly last two weeks have seen exceptionally dry weather, not only where it is usually dry at midfall, but also where it should be raining; namely, the southeast of India.

November is the time of the North East Monsoon, which is really the return of Trade Winds to the Bay of Bengal in answer to the southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence. Where northeasterlies blow on shore and up slope (southern east India to Sri Lanka) they bring rain whilst the ITCZ is still significantly north of the Equator. The rains later yield to winter's drought.

So it is an abnormally strong anticyclone aloft, settled as it was over the northern Arabian and the western subcontinent, that shut off the NE Monsoon rains as the four week of October got underway. Only as of this early week are there even a few scattered downpours over southernmost India. But some changes have begun; so, where will this lead?

Satellite imagery shows the scattered deep convection (namely, thunderstorms) has spread westward into the southern half of the Bay of Bengal along with some kind of broad, ill-defined tropical entity. It is this weather system that numerical models have been keying on for something like the last week. However, attempts to spin up a tropical cyclone of it have been no more than numerical fantasy, at least thus far, and the forecast scenarios of the last few days have steered away from any well-marked low (cyclone or depression).

Instead, it looks now like broad, shallow low pressure will tend westward and west- northwestward over the Bay with deep convective rains reaching Sri Lanka as well as Tamil Nadu to southern Andhra Pradesh. Maybe, scattered storms will erupt near the sea northeastward to Orissa.

Were a well-marked low to spin up over the Bay, rather than a broad, shallow and ill-defined low, southern India may end up mostly dry, at least away from the track of the would-be low.
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lull.. and what next?

On 10-Nov-2008, there was some rain bursts after a 2 week lull.
Yesterday (11-Nov-2008) again there was lull. In fact there was almost no sign of rain till midnight.
Early morning today (12-Nov-2008, 6 AM) there was some heavy drizzles around.
Now (9:21 AM) it's cloudy, humid, no low cloud movement yet and bad scene is the wind is from west-north-west.
After going thru latest satellite pic and 2 day numeric forecast.
We can say that the RAIN is coming.
It seems to be, there is a LOW formation over the North srilanka.
And this LOW may become into a Depression OR just a Low pressure trough system and move north. If this happens then we'll surely in for more heavy rains in next 36 hrs.