Cyclone "sidr" is near

Slow moving giant is getting very close to land, it's forecasted to make landfall during the next 36hrs over the border between India(west bengal) and Bangladesh.
Now "sidr" is moving straight North after all that small Zig-Zags.
JTWC have updated their earlier advisory giving the 1200 hrs, GMT, status for this Category 4 hurricane. The eye of Sidr was about 560 miles (900 kms) south of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Highest sustained winds about it were reckoned to be 130 knots, or 240 kmh, which is not far below the threshold to Category 5 hurricane status.
Sidr drifted northward at 7 knots, or 13 kmh.
I cannot overstate that this is a highly dangerous storm posing a major threat wherever it makes landfall. And latest numerical forecasts seem to have narrowed in on the western half of Bangladesh, a shore which is low-lying and riven with many openings and channels. And the western shore of Bangladesh is the forecast landfall of the JTWC. Timing is for sometime between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon, local time.
Tidal flooding, far and away the greatest threat to life and limb stemming from SIdr, will hinge upon storm strength at the time of landfall. A Category 4 landfall could be catastrophic, although substantial weaken ahead of landfall seems likely. A Category 1 storm would be serious and damaging, but by orders of magnitude less that of a Category 3 or Category 4 storm.
Here is the latest Infrared pic from JTWC

In my next blog i'll try and post some news analysis from that part of the world.

Latest tracking of cyclone "sidr"

Take a look at the latest tracking and forecast of path for the Giant "sidr".
Current position is NEAR 15.0N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT(222.24 KM/hr), GUSTS 145 KT(268.54 KM/hr) ... oh....oh this is massive if this giant makes landfall.

The current forecast of path is towards...South-east West-bengal & South-west of Bangladesh.

Local cricket highlights

Take a look at our local cricket. We usually play every Sunday morning at a public Ground in T.nagar,Chennai, India.
It'll be interesting to watch, How crowded the ground is??? I think u'll enjoy it.
More videos and snaps to come later.

"sidr" a Category 4 hurricane

This morning, I spoke about an apparent weakening of TC Sidr, which the JTWC had earlier reckoned to be a Category 4 hurricane with 115-knot (210-kmh) highest sustained winds. This latest infrared shot

...suggests to me a strengthened (or strengthening) storm with concentric outflow and a well-marked eye. It is a powerful and dangerous tropical cyclone.

The JTWC have not updated since 0600 hours, GMT, Tuesday. The IMD forecast path is here. They have adjusted eastward since I looked at this early in my shift.

Latest numerical forecasts still have disagreement. Actually, I have seen a new NOGAPS, which drives SIdr towards western Bangladesh (Thursday landfall is indicated), and the GFS, which weakens it northwestward to eastern India (landfall is unclear, but seems to be Saturday).

A sub-tropical jet stream is over the northern Subcontinent and so its behavior will bear upon Sidr`s path. A meaningful dip in this stream was shown by the earlier ECMWF to `pick up` Sidr`and send it towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar borderlands. A weaker stream seems to be the cause of the sluggishness seen on the GFS. I am leaning towards the more northerly path, but its no more than a hunch.

Cyclone Advisory - IMD

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. SIXTEEN ISSUED AT 0200 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND ADJOINING WEST-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 14.50 N AND LONG 89.50 E, ABOUT 480 KM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333 ).

ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964hPa.
THE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
CURRENT INTENSITY: T5.0 RPT T5.0.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 90-100 KTS AROUND THE STORM CENTRE.
SEA: PHENOMENAL.
FORECAST: THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 08 KT.
INTENSITY T5.5 RPT T5.5 WITH WINDS OF 105 KTS GUSTING TO 125 KTS NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE STORM AT 0000 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER 2007.

cyclone "sidr" weakening??

Here i've some numeric forecast for the next 24hrs from WXMAPS suggest "sidr" is going to weaken.
Is this going to happen??? If yes then it's going to be a good news for the people of Orissa, Bengal & Bangladesh.


Another scenario here, the latest satellite pic indicates NO SIGN of letting down.

"sidr" on the move

It has moved north again...
Here is the latest tracking & prediction of it's movement.
It's a slow moving giant.
Watch out people in North-Orissa & South-West Bengal... it's coming.

India vs Pakistan 3rd one day - Highlights

3rd one day between India and Pakistan highlights download

Part 1: http://www.justupit.com/7ff361b8465f1f661577084326ff6cda
Part 2: http://www.justupit.com/1309e6e89aa71c72af75e0b29b1f3e63
Part 3: http://www.filefactory.com/file/ae60b6

Enjoy the highlights!

Cyclone "sidr"

Now it has been named "SIDR". A potentially dangerous one.
Tropical Cyclone Sidr seems to have strengthened markedly since the latest (as of this writing) advisory from the JTWC. At that time, highest winds were near 55 knots, or 100 kmh. But have a look at this satellite shot.
We now have an eye, which means that Sidr is almost certainly holds winds of hurricane speed, I believe. As I earlier related, the JTWC had already been forecasting a hurricane-strength storm, so this seems to have come to pass.

Whither from here? While earlier numerical forecasts leaned towards a northerly and northeasterly path of Sidr, Monday`s forecast tracks have shifted westward such that landfall seems to be favored for the northwestern shore of the Bay (Orissa or northern Andhra Pradesh states of eastern India). Timing will be after midweek, maybe Friday-Saturday. Waters of the Bay of Bengal, being near 29 degrees C, are plenty warm to sustain a storm of hurricane intensity for some time to come, so Sidr will need to be followed carefully.
Here we have latest Satellite pic from JTWC

and IMD tracking...

"D" Indeed moving west

Still it's a Depression and in making of a Cyclone, not yet!
Lying centered around south-central bay of bengal.
Still it has lots of chance to move North.
Let's hope it moves west, atleast we might get heavy rains from that system.
It's worth watching this system.
Meanwhile take a look at the latest satellite pic....