Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Cyclone "sidr"

Now it has been named "SIDR". A potentially dangerous one.
Tropical Cyclone Sidr seems to have strengthened markedly since the latest (as of this writing) advisory from the JTWC. At that time, highest winds were near 55 knots, or 100 kmh. But have a look at this satellite shot.
We now have an eye, which means that Sidr is almost certainly holds winds of hurricane speed, I believe. As I earlier related, the JTWC had already been forecasting a hurricane-strength storm, so this seems to have come to pass.

Whither from here? While earlier numerical forecasts leaned towards a northerly and northeasterly path of Sidr, Monday`s forecast tracks have shifted westward such that landfall seems to be favored for the northwestern shore of the Bay (Orissa or northern Andhra Pradesh states of eastern India). Timing will be after midweek, maybe Friday-Saturday. Waters of the Bay of Bengal, being near 29 degrees C, are plenty warm to sustain a storm of hurricane intensity for some time to come, so Sidr will need to be followed carefully.
Here we have latest Satellite pic from JTWC

and IMD tracking...

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