Northeast back online

From Yesterday (1-Nov-2007) night, the Northeast air current is back online after that Small depression which crossed on 28-Oct-2007.

As a good sign Today (2-Nov-2007) morning...it was clear around 8AM then at 9AM there was signs of small drizzle or shower.
In the end at around 9:15 AM Rain came down rather heavily. Actually it was a pleasant surprise.

Yesterday's low temperature was 24.6°C @ 5:49am

As far as today's forecast is concerned, some intermitent rain showers will be there till noon... and clear/partially cloudy afterwards.
Hope the northeast strengthens further more in days to come.

Here is a numeric Rain forecast from wxmaps for 24 hrs

Cyclone 05A update

TC 05A has shifted westward Wednesday and has begun to through high, thin clouds down wind to southeastern Arabia. This is well shown by way of this infrared cloud shot from the IMD.


While one might believe that that big, bright (and thus cold and high on this infrared shot) mass marks a strong, growing storm. Not true. By the JTWC, 05A was a minimal tropical storm (highest sustained winds of 35 knots, or 65 kmh) as of 1200 hours, GMT, Wednesday. The low-level center was east of the big, bright cloud mass--a sure marker of strong easterly wind shear. Such shear makes meaningful grow of such storms tough, indeed.

Numerical forecasts are faster in dealing with 05A than had earlier been true. Thus, the low level center is forecast ashore Saturday or Sunday somewhere eastward from Salalah, Oman. The ECMWF, however, seems to dissipate 05A over water rather than steering its ashore. And it seems clear that weakening is shown. For their part, the JTWC weaken and ultimately dissipate 05A over water south of Salalah Friday and Saturday.

So impact upon land (mostly Oman) will hinge upon whether 05A bodily makes landfall (even if no longer a TC) or dissipates off shore. The former would favor heavy falls of rain near the landfall with hit-or-miss thunderstorms inland. The latter would have less impactful rain. Thursday should hold more clues as to whether 05A will make a landfall.

Patterns of down stream moisture owing to 05A suggest at least a day or two of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms over Uman, UAE, easternmost KSA and eastern Yemen. First rains would happen Friday in southern Oman.

Another clear day

Another clear morning for Chennai, I think this is going to be the feature for the day.

-- there was still a low-level whirl and weak low off Andhra Pradesh, South East India. Today, no such low is seen. Now, tropical moisture has fanned out over southern and eastern India to give rise to some showers and thunderstorms today, Wednesday. A setting favoring more such showers and thunderstorms, albeit with daily waxing and waning, is forecast to hold for a few more days with no new Bay of Bengal low forecast through next mid week.

IMD report (31-Oct-2007)

Northeast monsoon has been Active over South Coastal Andhrapradesh.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Coastal Andhrapradesh, at many places over Telangana and at a few places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamilnadu, Mainly dry weather prevailed over Rayalaseema and dry weather prevailed over Coastal Karnataka.

Ichapuram (Srikakulam dt) and Cuddalore recorded a heavy rainfall of 11 and 7 centimeters respectively.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Devarakonda (Nalgonda dt) 6, Kandukur (Prakasam dt) 5, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Adirampatnam, Manamelkudi, Kalingapatnam, Narasapur, Machilipatnam, Mandasa and Sompeta (both Srikakulam dt) and Macherla (Guntur dt) 4 each, Vedaranyam, Arantangi and Karambakudi (both Pudukottai dt), Shenkottah (Tirunelveli dt), Devakottai (Sivagangai dt), Bapatla, Palasa and Tekkali (both Srikakulam dt), Bhimavaram and Koderu (West Godavari dt), Guntur, Tennali, Atchampet, and Satnapalli (all Guntur dt), Addanki and Podili (both Prakasam dt),Aryankavu (Kollam dt), Bangalore Airport 3 each, Villupuram, Arimalam (Pudukottai dt), Kuzithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Gannavaram, Pathapatnam and Verraghatam (both Srikakulam dt), Parvathipuram (Vizianagaram dt), Mangalagiri, Piduguralla and Rapalli (all Guntur dt), Darsi and Yerragondapalam (both Prakasam dt), Mahabubnagar, Miryalaguda and Ramannapet (both Nalgonda dt) and Nelamangala (Bangalore Rural dt ) 2 each and Thirukoilur (Villupuram dt), Puducherry Airport, Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Allankudi (Pudukottai dt), Nagerkoil, Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt),Visakhapattinam, Visakhapattinam Airport, Ongole, Hyderabad Airport, Ranasthalam (Srikakulam dt), Cheepurupalli and Terlam (both Vizianagaram dt), Anakapalli, Bheemunipatnam and Chodavaram (all Visakhapattinam dt), Amalapuram (East Godavari dt), Bhimidole, Tadepallegudem and Tanaku (all West Godavari dt),Nandigama, Rentachintala, Khammam, Bhongir and Suryapet (Nalgonda dt), Chevella, Ibrahimpatnam, Tandur, Vikarabad and Pargi (all Rangareddy dt),Kozhikode Airport, Kochi Airport, Kayankulam (Alapuzha dt),Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Bangalore 1 each.

Madurai Airport recorded maximum temperature of 35 degree Celsius in the region.

Arogyavaram recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 15 degree Celsius in the plains of the region.

Playing with Fire

An old woman had 3 daughters. One day she decided to test her Sons-in-law.

One day she was walking along a lakeshore with the first son-in-law. Purposefully, she fell down in the lake and started yelling for help.

The first son-in-law jumped into the water and dragged her out into the shore.

The next day he found a brand new E Class Mercedes in his door steps with the wordings "Thank you!!!-Your Mother-in-law who loves you very much!!!"

Another day she was walking along a lakeshore with the second son-in-law. Purposefully, she fell down in the lake and started yelling for help.

The second son-in-law jumped into the water and dragged her out into the shore.

The next day he found a brand new E Class Mercedes in his door steps with the wordings "Thank you!!!-Your Mother-in-law who loves you very much!!!"

The third time she was walking with the third son-in-law and she repeated the same. But that guy didn't respond to her cries for help and didn't move a single step to save her.

The poor old lady who wanted to test her sons-in-law drowned and died.
.
.
.
.
.
The next day he found a brand new Rolls-Royce in his doorsteps with the following wordings ...
.
.
.
"Thank you very much! Your Father-in-law! !!"

Cloudy & Clear

Yesterday (30-oct-2007) it was a cold and cloudy day. In the morning there was a chance of rain, but afternoon the clouds became high.

Now-today (31-oct-2007) it's clear skies, Humidity is high... This may be signs of things to come in coming 3 or 4 days.

As of now the earlier prediction for another LOW over bay during 1-Nov-2007 is nulled.
Let's see when ....
Take a look at the rain forecast for next 24 hrs

Tropical Cyclone 05A

It took a few days longer than had at first been forecast, but has happened--Tropical Cyclone 05A.
As seen on the latest infrared imagery...


...that is 05A along the 65th (East) meridian and the 10th (north) parallel. At the upper left the picture, there seems to be a name given for 05A: Bayarab.

The JTWC have rated 05A as a 40-knot (75-kph) tropical storm (as of 1200 hours GMT) with sluggish movement towards the west. The cyclone spent the first part of its life (which began Sunday) whirling in place.

Now that we have a defined weather system in TC 05A, the numerical forecasts have begin to close ranks about a consensus: that cyclone will track towards the west and northwest through the week. By the end of the week, 05A could land on the southeast mainland of Arabia, although a strike upon the island of Socotra (off NE Somalia) could happen Friday.

So a question remains open: how strong will 05A get? a hurricane? I do believe there is `room to grow` for 05A. It does have 28-29 degree water to work with. Then, too, are questions related to impact upon Arabia (southern Oman, eastern Yemen, anywhere else). Assuming a depression or tropical storm, it would go without saying that local excessive rain would be a threat. And scattered desert cloudbursts could arise from 05A`s moisture far inland.

--Recall (those who read regularly) the mention of a (elusive) Bay of Bengal cyclone. Thus far, no such thing is immanent. As of this writing, there is broad low pressure east of southern India, but not any hint of cyclone potential.

The Bay low has made for some torrential, flooding falls of rain over South East India. Foremost of the instances that I found on data was that of Nellore, southern Andhra Pradesh. Here, rainfall Sunday to Monday evening was 14.9 inches, or 377 mm. Earlier late-week rains boosted city rainfall to 18 inches. At Chennai, where rains of the North East Monsoon were slow to start, a weekend outburst left 171 mm, or 6.8 inches. This brought the city roughly two-thirds of its normal October rainfall.

After that depression, what next?

Chennai recorded 12cm of rain in past 24 hrs, which is good.
So the numerical forecast for 27 & 28th october was correct.
Here is another numeric forecast for 31st october thru 1st november.... signs of another BAY LOW... Lets see

Proved wrong

Just go thru the REPORT & FORECAST published in IMD website (below), and this report would have been published in all local newspapers and even announced in RADIO & TV. Based on these report the Tamilnadu Govenment has announce FULL holiday for schools & colleges on 29-Oct-2007.

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE, 6, COLLEGE ROAD, CHENNAI - 600 006.
REGIONAL DAILY WEATHER REPORT FOR TAMILNADU, PUDUCHERRY, ANDHRAPRADESH, KARNATAKA, KERALA AND LAKSHADWEEP

SUNDAY, 28TH OCTOBER 2007 / 6TH KARTIKA 1929 (SAKA)

SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS RECORDED AT 0830 HRS IST:
Yesterday's low pressure area over Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay concentrated into a depression and lies centered at 28/0830 IST over Southwest Bay at about 480 kilometres Southeast of Chennai. It is likely to intensify further and move in a West-Northwesterly direction and cross the coast between Puducherry and Kavali by tomorrow evening the 29th October 2007.

North East monsoon has been active over Tamilnadu and Kerala.

But what happened is.... The DEPRESSION crossed tamilnadu coast YESTERDAY (28-Oct-2007) itself, not on the date anounced by IMD (29-Oct-2007, Evening).
We know the reason for this sudden generation of depression and quick crossing into land is due to the tropical cyclone development over the Arabian Sea.

Lots more to come.

Another day to remember

Non-stop light-medium-heavy rain thru the day.

For past 24hrs rain record stands 101.8 MM at 7:09 PM

Previously a day to remember was 27-Oct-2005, 423 MM.

Rain still continues as i write... lets see when it stops..
Take a look at latest Satellite image and Forecast (generated on 27-oct-2007)