Cyclone 05A update

TC 05A has shifted westward Wednesday and has begun to through high, thin clouds down wind to southeastern Arabia. This is well shown by way of this infrared cloud shot from the IMD.


While one might believe that that big, bright (and thus cold and high on this infrared shot) mass marks a strong, growing storm. Not true. By the JTWC, 05A was a minimal tropical storm (highest sustained winds of 35 knots, or 65 kmh) as of 1200 hours, GMT, Wednesday. The low-level center was east of the big, bright cloud mass--a sure marker of strong easterly wind shear. Such shear makes meaningful grow of such storms tough, indeed.

Numerical forecasts are faster in dealing with 05A than had earlier been true. Thus, the low level center is forecast ashore Saturday or Sunday somewhere eastward from Salalah, Oman. The ECMWF, however, seems to dissipate 05A over water rather than steering its ashore. And it seems clear that weakening is shown. For their part, the JTWC weaken and ultimately dissipate 05A over water south of Salalah Friday and Saturday.

So impact upon land (mostly Oman) will hinge upon whether 05A bodily makes landfall (even if no longer a TC) or dissipates off shore. The former would favor heavy falls of rain near the landfall with hit-or-miss thunderstorms inland. The latter would have less impactful rain. Thursday should hold more clues as to whether 05A will make a landfall.

Patterns of down stream moisture owing to 05A suggest at least a day or two of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms over Uman, UAE, easternmost KSA and eastern Yemen. First rains would happen Friday in southern Oman.