Today we are having good showers from morning... North-east at its best.
It's likely the rain strength might pick up in days to come.
I'm waiting for a Depression or a Cyclone to form from Bay... in next 3 days.
Wait and see
Friday, October 26, 2007
Weather maps for next few days
Today we are having good showers from morning... North-east at its best.
It's likely the rain strength might pick up in days to come.
I'm waiting for a Depression or a Cyclone to form from Bay... in next 3 days.
Wait and see
Long wait for a Depression from Bay
Not much different from this time Wednesday. Fewer thunderstorms over land. Map analysis does show a low west of Lakshadweep (Arabian Sea), but no other pressure center is obvious. High cloud patterns hint at the high that is present, aloft, across the middle of India.
The Arabian Sea low is forecast (by numerical forecasts) to tighten and deepen towards the west, ultimately (5-7 days) nearing Socotra, the island off the `horn` of Somalia. It could become a tropical cyclone. The hitch? This solution differs from Wednesday`s; in other words, there is still uncertainty.
As with a western low, Thursday`s numerical forecasts also show an eastern low, as they have for the better part of a week. As with the western low, a Bay of Bengal low (tropical cyclone?) is forecast on a slower schedule than has earlier been indicated. But the location is consistent: east of South East India. To follow the GFS numerical forecast, see the COLA Website.
By the way, the latest (1200 hours GMT) run of the GFS has a strong tropical cyclone west of India recurving towards western Gujurat. It even shows heavy rain into Sindh, Pakistan. This would be towards the end of the first week in November. Anyways, I am not sure it is worth the time spent looking at it (seconds?).
The Arabian Sea low is forecast (by numerical forecasts) to tighten and deepen towards the west, ultimately (5-7 days) nearing Socotra, the island off the `horn` of Somalia. It could become a tropical cyclone. The hitch? This solution differs from Wednesday`s; in other words, there is still uncertainty.
As with a western low, Thursday`s numerical forecasts also show an eastern low, as they have for the better part of a week. As with the western low, a Bay of Bengal low (tropical cyclone?) is forecast on a slower schedule than has earlier been indicated. But the location is consistent: east of South East India. To follow the GFS numerical forecast, see the COLA Website.
By the way, the latest (1200 hours GMT) run of the GFS has a strong tropical cyclone west of India recurving towards western Gujurat. It even shows heavy rain into Sindh, Pakistan. This would be towards the end of the first week in November. Anyways, I am not sure it is worth the time spent looking at it (seconds?).
Chennai to Coimbatore
Yesterday i was travelling from Chennai to Coimbatore (497KM) by train.
Started At 6:16AM from chennai central
It was clear and sunny when i started Now the rain bearing cloud cover is getting heavier...
Around 8:04AM reached Katpadi,
After that i had 2 masaal dosai and i vadai for Rs.28.00
Water everywhere due to overnite rains....
Thru the journey there were some heavy and light showers.. upto Salem.
After that dry thru to Coimbatore.
Full day in COimbatore...there was no rain.
Started At 6:16AM from chennai central
It was clear and sunny when i started Now the rain bearing cloud cover is getting heavier...
Around 8:04AM reached Katpadi,
After that i had 2 masaal dosai and i vadai for Rs.28.00
Water everywhere due to overnite rains....
Thru the journey there were some heavy and light showers.. upto Salem.
After that dry thru to Coimbatore.
Full day in COimbatore...there was no rain.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Rain picking up
Monsoon Rain is picking up...
For details about last 24hrs rain Please take a look at the Doppler images provided by IMD. Doppler Image
Rainfall recorded in past 24 hrs...
Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) 23, Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt) and Karaikal 17 each, Nagapattinam 16, Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam dt) 15, Thozhudur (Cuddalore dt) and Parangipettai 14 each, Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt) 13, Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) 12, Puducherry Airport, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt), Nannilam and Thiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Thiruvarur and Tada (Nellore dt) 10 each, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Kumbakonam (Thanjavur dt), Kodavasal, Mannargudi, Valangaiman and Muthupet (all Tiruvarur dt), Manamelkudi, Gudur (Nellore dt) and Tirupathi Airport 9 each, Orathanadu, Papanasam, Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (all Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam and Thiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondam (Perambalur dt) and Rajampet (Cuddapah dt) 8 each and Thanjavur, Adiramapattinam, Virudhachalam and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Perambalur, Thuraiyur (Tiruchirapalli dt), Lakkireddipalli (Cuddapah dt) and Agathi Airport 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:
Vanur (Cuddalore dt), Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Lalgudi and Pullambadi (Tiruchirapalli dt), Cholavaram (Thiruvallur dt), Rapur and Sulurpet (both Nellore dt) and Gulbarga 6 each, Thiruvallur, Cuddalore, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Gingee, Kallakurichi (both Villupuram dt), Arantangi, Gandarvakottai, Karambakudi and Perungalur (all Pudukottai dt), Ramanathapuram, Salem, Yercaud, Ketti (Nilgiris dt), Mayanur (Karur dt), Thathaiyangarpet (Tiruchirapalli dt), Thiruchirapalli, Thiruchirapalli Airport, Red Hills and Thamaraipakkam (both Thiruvallur dt) and Seetharamapuram (Nellore dt) 5 each, Vallam (Thanjavur dt), Alankudi, Keeranur and Viralimalai (all Pudukottai dt), Tiruvannamalai, Ambur (Vellore dt), Dharmapuri, Denkanikottai, Soolagiri and Uthangarai (all Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt), Valapadi (Salem dt), Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Kodaikanal, Poondi (Thiruvallur dt), Nellore, Atmakur (Nellore dt), Vempalli (Cuddapah dt), Gokak (Belgaum dt), Raichur, Ajjampura and Panchanahalli (both Chickmagalur dt), Hosadurga, Srirampura and Hiriyur (all Chitradurga dt) 4 each, Chengalpattu and Madhuranthagam (both Kanchipuram dt), Kanchipuram, Poonamalle and Ponneri (both Thiruvallur dt), Sankarapuram and Thirukoilur (both Villupuram dt), Thirumayam (Pudukottai dt), Thiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt), Chengam, Polur and Sathanurdam (all Thiruvannamalai dt), Harur, Pennagaram and Pappireddipatti (all Dharmapuri dt), Barur and Thali (both Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Mangalapuram, Rasipuram and Sendamangalam (all Namakkal dt), Omalur (Salem dt), Bhavanisagar and Perundurai (both Erode dt), Erode, Coonoor, Kundhabridge (Nilgiris dt), Karur Paramathi, Kulithalai (Karur dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt), Manaparai, Marungapuri and Musiri (all Tiruchirapalli dt), Devakottai, Karaikudi and Tirupathur (all Sivagangai dt), Korattur (Thiruvallur dt), Porumamilla (Cuddapah dt), Dharmavaram, Chilamattur, Madakasira and Kadiri (all Ananthapur dt), Mangalore Airport, Afzalfur (Gulbarga dt), Chickmagalur, Lingadahalli, Shivani, Tarikere, Kadur and Yegati (all Chickmagalur dt), Gowribidanur (Kolar dt), Hessarghatta (Bangalore Urban dt), Hosekote (Bangalore Rural dt), Huliyurdurga and Koratagere (both Tumkur dt) 3 each.
Chennai AP: 14mm
Chennai: 15mm
Source IMD, Chennai.
For details about last 24hrs rain Please take a look at the Doppler images provided by IMD. Doppler Image
Rainfall recorded in past 24 hrs...
Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) 23, Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt) and Karaikal 17 each, Nagapattinam 16, Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam dt) 15, Thozhudur (Cuddalore dt) and Parangipettai 14 each, Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt) 13, Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) 12, Puducherry Airport, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt), Nannilam and Thiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Thiruvarur and Tada (Nellore dt) 10 each, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Kumbakonam (Thanjavur dt), Kodavasal, Mannargudi, Valangaiman and Muthupet (all Tiruvarur dt), Manamelkudi, Gudur (Nellore dt) and Tirupathi Airport 9 each, Orathanadu, Papanasam, Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (all Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam and Thiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondam (Perambalur dt) and Rajampet (Cuddapah dt) 8 each and Thanjavur, Adiramapattinam, Virudhachalam and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Perambalur, Thuraiyur (Tiruchirapalli dt), Lakkireddipalli (Cuddapah dt) and Agathi Airport 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:
Vanur (Cuddalore dt), Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Lalgudi and Pullambadi (Tiruchirapalli dt), Cholavaram (Thiruvallur dt), Rapur and Sulurpet (both Nellore dt) and Gulbarga 6 each, Thiruvallur, Cuddalore, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Gingee, Kallakurichi (both Villupuram dt), Arantangi, Gandarvakottai, Karambakudi and Perungalur (all Pudukottai dt), Ramanathapuram, Salem, Yercaud, Ketti (Nilgiris dt), Mayanur (Karur dt), Thathaiyangarpet (Tiruchirapalli dt), Thiruchirapalli, Thiruchirapalli Airport, Red Hills and Thamaraipakkam (both Thiruvallur dt) and Seetharamapuram (Nellore dt) 5 each, Vallam (Thanjavur dt), Alankudi, Keeranur and Viralimalai (all Pudukottai dt), Tiruvannamalai, Ambur (Vellore dt), Dharmapuri, Denkanikottai, Soolagiri and Uthangarai (all Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt), Valapadi (Salem dt), Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Kodaikanal, Poondi (Thiruvallur dt), Nellore, Atmakur (Nellore dt), Vempalli (Cuddapah dt), Gokak (Belgaum dt), Raichur, Ajjampura and Panchanahalli (both Chickmagalur dt), Hosadurga, Srirampura and Hiriyur (all Chitradurga dt) 4 each, Chengalpattu and Madhuranthagam (both Kanchipuram dt), Kanchipuram, Poonamalle and Ponneri (both Thiruvallur dt), Sankarapuram and Thirukoilur (both Villupuram dt), Thirumayam (Pudukottai dt), Thiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt), Chengam, Polur and Sathanurdam (all Thiruvannamalai dt), Harur, Pennagaram and Pappireddipatti (all Dharmapuri dt), Barur and Thali (both Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Mangalapuram, Rasipuram and Sendamangalam (all Namakkal dt), Omalur (Salem dt), Bhavanisagar and Perundurai (both Erode dt), Erode, Coonoor, Kundhabridge (Nilgiris dt), Karur Paramathi, Kulithalai (Karur dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt), Manaparai, Marungapuri and Musiri (all Tiruchirapalli dt), Devakottai, Karaikudi and Tirupathur (all Sivagangai dt), Korattur (Thiruvallur dt), Porumamilla (Cuddapah dt), Dharmavaram, Chilamattur, Madakasira and Kadiri (all Ananthapur dt), Mangalore Airport, Afzalfur (Gulbarga dt), Chickmagalur, Lingadahalli, Shivani, Tarikere, Kadur and Yegati (all Chickmagalur dt), Gowribidanur (Kolar dt), Hessarghatta (Bangalore Urban dt), Hosekote (Bangalore Rural dt), Huliyurdurga and Koratagere (both Tumkur dt) 3 each.
Chennai AP: 14mm
Chennai: 15mm
Source IMD, Chennai.
Bay watch
It shows an unsettled setting from the southeastern Arabian Sea and southern India to western Indonesia and the Malay Peninsula. Ill-defined cores seem to be near southern India and near Sumatra. The pattern of high cloud (whitest is coldest and thus highest) to the west suggests upper winds about a ridge, aloft, fanning these clouds westward and northward; the ridge would be anchored over eastern India. This radial flow could be supportive for the growth of a tropical depression in the area, most likely west of southern India, were it to persist.
Lowest pressure now has two centers: one is east of Sri Lanka and the other over the Laccadive Sea. I believe that the one to watch here is the western one, given what I am seeing on numerical weather forecasts. Make no mistake about it, though: there is not yet a consensus as to where and when any depression or cyclone would happen. Indeed, I do not see this as a `done deal` yet.
Latest numerical forecasts include the GFS, which is slow to grow a low over the Arabian Sea. It eventually (after November 5th) brings rain to southern Oman. It also suggests a southern Bay low, but the timing is different--later by 2-3 days--than had been earlier shown.
The NOGAPS has two lows developing including a Bay low that lands in SE India at about Oct 28. This is once again slower than earlier forecast runs. The NOGAPS has a stronger Arabean Sea low--further west and faster--than the GFS.
The ECMWF from earlier Tuesday shows a strong low (if true, it would be an important tropical cyclone) ominously near to southern Oman by October 30th. As for the Bay, the trend is in line with the other models: a low (depression or cyclone) that is shown to be slower to form than on earlier model runs.
It is still a waiting game without much confidence. The time of year is right for a depression or cyclone--and so is the overall weather setting. Yet it may take another few days to get a basic idea of where any such weather system, or systems, takes shape.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Numeric forecast for 25-Oct updated
Still we can see a LOW forming over the bay of bengal.
Below is the rainfall forecast for 25-Oct.
North-east update
A new weather setting has taken hold compared to that of early last week. Then, an upper trough straddled northern India and southwesterlies (the last of the South West Monsoon) were still wetting the far-northeast of the Subcontinent. Now, high pressure has built aloft over the Subcontinent and has shut off the SW Monsoon over Bangladesh and nearby India. Farther south, a broad low has spread over southern India and Sri Lanka, the results being the blow-up of showers and thunderstorms suggested by the above infrared cloud shot (IMD).
The pressure as of Monday evening, local time, is 2-4 millibars higher over Bangladesh than over Sri Lanka. This is enough to drive a weak (north)easterly wind flow over the western Bay of Bengal, so we should be looking at the first days of a North East Monsoon.
Numerical forecasts do not agree as to the coming weather for the greater North Indian Ocean region, although there are important aspect wherein there is agreement. As I had talked up last week, there is still the suggestion that a tropical depression (or cyclone) will happen over the Bay of Bengal later this week. Timing for a visit to the Tamil Nadu coast of India was indicated for the 26th or the 27th. Today, numerical models are not agreed as to this (other than the NOGAPS, which still shows it).
One cause of the straying of the model solutions lies with the low over southern India. There is an tendency on the part of the numerical forecasts to take this low to the southern Arabian Sea, where it would compete with and perhaps slow the growth of any Bay low. By the way, the seeds of any Bay low may already be sown in the blow-up of cloud and rain over Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula (see the satellite image). The last two to three days have seen rainfall of 33 cms, or 13.0 inches, at Sibolga, western Sumatra.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF show lows over the Arabian Sea looking forward 5-7 days. And the longer range outlook of the GFS even shows low pressure reaching southeastern Arabia with rain. This is forecast about two weeks forward in time--far too far ahead for any meaningful confidence.
The pressure as of Monday evening, local time, is 2-4 millibars higher over Bangladesh than over Sri Lanka. This is enough to drive a weak (north)easterly wind flow over the western Bay of Bengal, so we should be looking at the first days of a North East Monsoon.
Numerical forecasts do not agree as to the coming weather for the greater North Indian Ocean region, although there are important aspect wherein there is agreement. As I had talked up last week, there is still the suggestion that a tropical depression (or cyclone) will happen over the Bay of Bengal later this week. Timing for a visit to the Tamil Nadu coast of India was indicated for the 26th or the 27th. Today, numerical models are not agreed as to this (other than the NOGAPS, which still shows it).
One cause of the straying of the model solutions lies with the low over southern India. There is an tendency on the part of the numerical forecasts to take this low to the southern Arabian Sea, where it would compete with and perhaps slow the growth of any Bay low. By the way, the seeds of any Bay low may already be sown in the blow-up of cloud and rain over Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula (see the satellite image). The last two to three days have seen rainfall of 33 cms, or 13.0 inches, at Sibolga, western Sumatra.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF show lows over the Arabian Sea looking forward 5-7 days. And the longer range outlook of the GFS even shows low pressure reaching southeastern Arabia with rain. This is forecast about two weeks forward in time--far too far ahead for any meaningful confidence.
MSN Foreca
A good way to know your weather.
Provided by MSN and Foreca. Have a look at it here http://weather.msn.com/region.aspx?wealocations=India
Monday, October 22, 2007
Monsoon Picking up
Today the Northeast monsoon picked up in strength, but still i think it's weak. Today the low cloud movement is from NORTH, this is also not good sign. For rains to become heavy it should come from EAST, straight from the SEA. Anyway monsoon weather is nice to see & feel. Here is the latest Insat pic.
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