Friday, October 26, 2007

Long wait for a Depression from Bay

Not much different from this time Wednesday. Fewer thunderstorms over land. Map analysis does show a low west of Lakshadweep (Arabian Sea), but no other pressure center is obvious. High cloud patterns hint at the high that is present, aloft, across the middle of India.

The Arabian Sea low is forecast (by numerical forecasts) to tighten and deepen towards the west, ultimately (5-7 days) nearing Socotra, the island off the `horn` of Somalia. It could become a tropical cyclone. The hitch? This solution differs from Wednesday`s; in other words, there is still uncertainty.

As with a western low, Thursday`s numerical forecasts also show an eastern low, as they have for the better part of a week. As with the western low, a Bay of Bengal low (tropical cyclone?) is forecast on a slower schedule than has earlier been indicated. But the location is consistent: east of South East India. To follow the GFS numerical forecast, see the COLA Website.

By the way, the latest (1200 hours GMT) run of the GFS has a strong tropical cyclone west of India recurving towards western Gujurat. It even shows heavy rain into Sindh, Pakistan. This would be towards the end of the first week in November. Anyways, I am not sure it is worth the time spent looking at it (seconds?).

1 comment: