99B is now a depression (according to IMD) and nearing Myanmar coast.
But US Navy still plotting pressure around 1004mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofcXi.jpg
12pm, Most of convective activity is still concentrated over W,SW,NW quadrants of 99B.
T showers popping over Myanmar coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofd3t.jpg
99B - What next?
It'll track NE for 24hrs and then North or NNW into North Bay on 25-Oct.
As shear is low, it'll intensify to Cyclone.
GEFS expects the system to track NNW and crash into S Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdjs.jpg
HWRF model suggests or confused about the track "after 99B reaches Cyclone and drifts into N Bay" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdmk.jpg
UKMET model suggests a WSW drift after 99B reaches North Bay as a Cyclone ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdsH.jpg
Why models are confused?
All because of the 2 ridges and the 99B is struck right in-between ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdzL.jpg
Next 2 days, scattered T showers expected over central,N-central,W-ghats Kerala and into Nw,W,central,SE,central-coast Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofgFX.jpg