9:30am, #Chennai got a mini early hr shower. IWM Polichalur 3mm. Scattered T showers also witnessed over S,SE Tamilnadu... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/p3GJI.jpg
An elongated low-level circulation is occupying S Bay along 5th parallel ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/p3H2W.jpg
This circulation is expected to consolidate slowly along SSE of srilanka during next 3 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/p3H9t.jpg
During next 42hrs, Scattered Heavy T showers will be along S,SE Tamilnadu and scattered light,moderate rain expected for rest of Tamilnadu .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/p3Hll.jpg
Since the easterly trough has moved into Arabian sea, the T showers that were prevailing along W Karnataka,SW Maharastra will not be there !
After 21/22-Nov, present dry phase of MJO is expected to become neutral / wet over Bay, India .. this "may" induce better easterlies in Bay .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/p3HG8.gif
GFS expects a LOW over SW Bay near Srilanka on 22/23-Nov !! https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/p3HO6.jpg
Meanwhile, a weak WD trough is expected to affect Kashmir from 22-Nov !