Take a look at latest water vapor satellite imagery.. DRY seen over most of #India except S.India. "END of SW #Monsoon 2016" .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXaBz.jpg
Latest analysis also suggests the same "DRY has set in over most of India" and N,NW winds are prevailing ! .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXb1J.jpg
Analysis show that elongated circulation is seen from NNE Bay to Central Bay.
A weak circulation along N-coast Kerala.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXcaF.jpg
During next 2 days, the N-coast Kerala circulation is expected to drift SSW and place itself over SE-corner Arabian sea as weak circulation .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXdVD.jpg
Ideally the expected SE-corner Arabian sea circulation is a best scenario for the winds in Bay to become East around this time of year, but, this time TS Sarika in W Pacific is and Will hinder the easterlies flow into SE Bay !
Now coming to TS Sarika in W Pacific .. this is the expected track till 17-Oct.
GFS expects another TS or typhoon following this .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/nXeUx.gif
We can see that now and in 4 days the Winds will gush towards TS/Typhoon Sarika .
GFS expects another Typhoon in making followed by Sarika..https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXfnv.jpg
GFS model suggests that Easterlies will not push into SE Bay till 25-Oct.
N Tamilnadu, #Chennai may have Winter like condition from 18 to 24.
As of now, there's NO chance of North-East Monsoon till 24-Oct !
During next 2 / 3 days.
Heavy afternoon, late-evening T showers for W-ghats Kerala & Tamilnadu, NW,W,SW,S,S-central Tamilnadu.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/nXh7n.jpg