Monday, October 31, 2016

October 31, 2016 at 11:16PM

Sharp showers over chennai. Egmore 10:07pm, Madipakkam 10:30pm, Polichalur at 10:44pm got 8.4mm. #weather

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So far NE Monsoon is weak along Tamilnadu coast, N Tamilnadu and #Chennai.
And
Expected to be so during next 3 days !
Today till mid-morning, #Chennai suburbs, city experiences "scattered moderate / light rain".
Dry 2/3 days ahead !

5:30pm, Heavy scattered T showers again over S,SW Tamilnadu and into S Kerala .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ouZc0.jpg

Till 8:30am today..
HEAVY rain over W,SW,S Tamilnadu.
Udumalpet, Vadipatti = 12cm
Pollachi = 11cm

Analysis show a strong easterlies has pushed into SE Bay and a weak low-level circulation seen over Andaman sea ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ouZTI.jpg

GFS expects a WML or even a Depression from this present circulation over S-central Bay on 2-Nov ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ov0wI.jpg

Towards Friday, GFS expects this upcoming circulation to become a Cyclone/Deep depression and track towards N Andhra / Odisha ! 
If "that" happens, most of Tamilnadu & Chennai will have DRY spell from 2-Nov to 7/8-Nov !

Meanwhile, scattered HEAVY T showers ahead for SW Karnataka, many zones of Kerala, W,SW,S-central,S Tamilnadu during next 36hrs... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ov1lq.jpg
For N,central,coastal Tamilnadu, Chennai and S,central Andhra .. morning / mid-morning / noon "moderate, scattered rain" expected on 1-Nov.

October 31, 2016 at 07:47AM

Chennai - 7:45am, nice showers with thunder over NNW,NW,W suburbs. #weather

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Sunday, October 30, 2016

October 30, 2016 at 07:57AM


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October 30, 2016 at 02:26AM

2:20am, zones of #Chennai getting first NE #monsoon showers. More widespread rain in 36hrs. #weather

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Saturday, October 29, 2016

October 29, 2016 at 04:14AM

3:30am, Nellore getting smashed by heavy rains. #kyant renant. Happy #Diwali. #weather

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Friday, October 28, 2016

October 28, 2016 at 10:51PM


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October 28, 2016 at 10:45PM

On Diwali day evening a circulation expected along S,SE Tamilnadu. This'll initiate NEM showers along TN coast. #weather

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October 28, 2016 at 10:35PM

In next 24hrs, this circulation will weaken to a Easterly trough along S Andhra, chennai, N TN. #weather

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October 28, 2016 at 10:31PM

10:10pm, T showers seen along S-coast Andhra, around 150km NNE from #Chennai #weather

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October 28, 2016 at 10:22PM

10pm, remnant of Kyant as a low-level circulation just NE of #Chennai #weather

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Thursday, October 27, 2016


12:40pm, Some more convective activity seen over weak #Kyant.

GFS expects the system #Kyant to drift close to Chennai on afternoon, Friday as a LOW... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/onH9Y.jpg

Moderate rain to start along S-coast Andhra, #Chennai from afternoon of Friday. 

Kyant undergoing shear & dry air stress. Now a depression !



5:30am, Cyclone #Kyant is almost killed by Shear and Dry air. Still drifting WSW.
Convective activity is less. A D.Depression now .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/onmvv.jpg 

S,central-coast Andhra and N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai can still have Rain on Friday.
Rain forecast for Friday & Diwali coming up around noon

#Kyant will undergo more weakening and "may" survive as a low-level circulation, LOW and reach up to S-coast Andhra, Chennai on Friday.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

October 26, 2016 at 11:19PM

#Kyant remnant! GFS continues to show a Low to come near to #Chennai on #friday . #weather

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October 26, 2016 at 11:11PM

11pm, shear and dry air is taking toll over cyclone #kyant . weakening has started. #weather

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October 26, 2016 at 11:18AM


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October 26, 2016 at 07:08AM


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October 26, 2016 at 07:02AM


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October 26, 2016 at 06:50AM


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Cyclone Kyant is here

03B Cyclone is officially named as In past 12hrs, again it has tracked WSW, no further intensification observed ..


Tuesday, October 25, 2016

99B is now a Cyclone 03B and tracking towards Andhra !!


2:30pm, 99B has intensified into a Cyclone and now tracked as 03B.
It might get its name #Kyant before midnight.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/ojcUF.gif
03B, during past 12 hrs it has tracked West and then WSW.
Present position is plotted in map.
ADT analysis says pressure around 990mb .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojdzI.jpg


03B, Now ALL models suggest a #Diwali menace from Bay for zones from N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai to central-coast Andhra ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojdY1.jpg  


Models also suggest a weakening of this Cyclone to depression after 48hrs while nearing Andhra coast due to Dry air from NW and high shear ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/ojg1x.gif 
03B, already we can see DRY air from North #India is starting to entrain into  NW,W,SW quadrants of the system ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ojgHB.jpg

Due to 03B Cyclone, As of now, on #Diwali day, 29-Oct, there's a 50% chance of Rain and Winds for S-coast Andhra and #Chennai.
Due to mid-level circulation over Lakshadweep .. scattered T showers possible for S,central Kerala and into S,SE Tamilnadu in next 30hrs.

October 25, 2016 at 07:08AM


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Monday, October 24, 2016

Sunday, October 23, 2016

October 23, 2016 at 06:21PM


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99B - Intensity and where it can move ?



99B is now a depression (according to IMD) and nearing Myanmar coast. 
But US Navy still plotting pressure around 1004mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofcXi.jpg
12pm, Most of convective activity is still concentrated over W,SW,NW quadrants of 99B.
T showers popping over Myanmar coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofd3t.jpg

99B - What next?
It'll track NE for 24hrs and then North or NNW into North Bay on 25-Oct.
As shear is low, it'll intensify to Cyclone.



For 99B..
GEFS expects the system to track NNW and crash into S Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdjs.jpg
HWRF model suggests or confused about the track "after 99B reaches Cyclone and drifts into N Bay" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdmk.jpg
UKMET model suggests a WSW drift after 99B reaches North Bay as a Cyclone ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdsH.jpg

Why models are confused?
All because of the 2 ridges and the 99B is struck right in-between ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdzL.jpg

Next 2 days, scattered T showers expected over central,N-central,W-ghats Kerala and into Nw,W,central,SE,central-coast Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofgFX.jpg

Friday, October 21, 2016

Update on 99B and "Chennai & Tamilnadu may not witness NEM this October"


Typhoon #Haima has made landfall around noon today ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od7SY.jpg


Now focus shifts to 99B in Bay, at present in central Bay as a LOW ... Low level circulation is exposed with convective activity over West ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od8qJ.jpg
9pm, IR shows still convective activity is over W,SW.
It's pull effect is giving T showers over Kerala and S,central,SE Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/od9Ag.jpg

99B is expected to gain intensity slowly with an initial movement of NE towards Myanmar coast.
And take a N or NNW movement in next 2 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/odadX.gif
99B in next 2 days is expected to move NE, with moderate intensification into a Depression !
Shear is less in its NE direction ! ... 


During next 2 days.
Scattered T showers over central,S Kerala.
And
T showers also for W,central,central-coast, SE,S Tamilnadu ... 

October 21, 2016 at 09:45PM


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October 21, 2016 at 09:07PM


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Thursday, October 20, 2016

Typhoon Haima, Bay - 99B and NE monsoon delay !


Typhoon #HAIMA is nearing China coast near to HongKong ... Landfall expected in next 18hrs .. 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oajB5.jpg .. 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/oajEO.gif 


This Typhoon has popped a LOW in our central Bay of Bengal as well, it is tracked as 99B ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oajYH.jpg
This 99B is trying to establish/consolidate even though the low-level wind gush is still happening from S Bay to that Typhoon ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oalue.jpg
At present 99B is a LOW with pressure around 1004mb.
Expected movement is NE during next 2 days towards Myanmar coast !

99B, Models suggest a North or NW re-curve after nearing Myanmar coast ... this will even delay the easterlies "NE Monsoon" into SE Bay. 99B 's expected re-curve may not happen if it fizzles out along Myanmar coast along with Typhoon Haima over China !
Has to watch till 23-Oct.

During next 2 days, due to pull effect of 99B, Kerala can have SW Monsoon style showers and HEAVY T showers along W-ghats Kerala, Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/oaoOP.jpg
During next 2 days, scattered T showers expected to pop over central,W,SE, S Tamilnadu !