Latest analysis show, 2 weak low-level circulations, One just west of Male, Maldives and another SE of Srilanka.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jilmA.jpg
At upper-levels, a circulation is found over SE corner Arabian sea East of Male, Maldives. No upper-level circulation present over SSW Bay.
Both these low,upper-level circulations are pushing SE winds laid with moisture into Tamilnadu, Kerala, S Karnataka ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jilOo.jpg
GFS model expects the present SSW Bay circulation to persist weak and then strengthen in that zone on 15/16-May .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jimrL.jpg
Present SE corner Arabian sea upper-level circulation is expected to drift ENE / NE and persist south of Kanyakumari for next 2 days.
Now, both GFS & ECMWF model are in consensus with the formation of strong circulation over SW Bay on 15-May... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jinp8.jpg
In next 36hrs, more scattered heavy/moderate T showers for All zones Kerala, S,W,NW,N,W-ghats Tamilnadu... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jinV6.jpg
In 24hrs, more T showers will pop over S,SW,central,N,NW Karnataka into S,W,central Maharastra.
Some over NE Andhra, S Odisha.
Today, scattered HEAVY nor-wester T showers possible over N Odisha, N Chatisgarh, S Jharkhand and into S,SW,central Bengal
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