Friday, May 13, 2016

91B - perfect for monsoon winds to push to S,SE Bay

Latest on 91B, suggest that low-level circulation is better organized than upper-level circulation of the system..
As the cross equatorial winds are reaching the S,SW,SE quadrant of 91B... heavy convective activity will pop in next 24/36hrs.

At present, 2:40pm, Less convective activity seen around the LOW 91B ...

Today the LWD has slightly shifted East of W-ghats in Karnataka and Kerala.
Heavy T showers ahead in these zones !
In 24hrs, Due to good LWD along W-ghats..
HEAVY, scattered T showers for W,S,SW,W-ghats Karnataka, Kerala..

Today's T-showers along W-ghats Karnataka, Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu can be "HEAVY" due to good moisture pull from Arabian sea towards 91B.

In next 24/36hrs, 91B is expected to deepen to a WML and drift N,NW ...
Expected path of 91B during next 2 days is "Drift NNW or NW and deepen to WML with pressure around 1002mb".
91B is good for pulling cross-equatorial winds (SW monsoon) into S,SE Bay and upto S Andaman Islands.
91B - Most models suggest a initial track of NW towards Tamilnadu coast and then re-curve NE into central,E/NE Bay with intensification !

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