Monday, October 26, 2015

The twins - 93B and 94A. NE monsoon to reach Tamilnadu coast on 27-Oct

Now, both circulations, LOW are tracked.. S Arabian sea - 94A and SW Bay - 93B...

Present position and Pressure of two systems..
94A - 6.5N, 64.4E, 1007mb
93B - 6.2N, 82.5E, 1007mb

10pm, Satellite IR shows heavy convective activity All along 5th to 10th parallel from S Arabian sea to S,S-E Bay..
10pm, Due to WD, scattered rain seen over Punjab, Kashmir and N Himachal...

Now, the forecast for both 94A and 93B is getting 75% clear.
Models expect the 94A to become Cyclone and drift W-N-W in next 3/4 days.
While, the SW Bay LOW is not expected to intensify, instead it'll get embedded with the upcoming easterly trough..

As of now, the easterly wave has reached upto central Bay...
This easterly wave is expected to reach Tamilnadu coast, S-coast Andhra on morning/noon of 27-Oct.. launching NE monsoon along coast ! 
Heavy/moderate rain to start for S-coast #Andhra, #Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai from noon/evening of 27-Oct..

If 94A intensifies into Cyclone and drifts W-N-W then pull effect can give more rain for Tamilnadu coast and Andhra coast after wednesday.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
Monday morning and before 3pm...
light / moderate rain possible along N-E,N-coast,SE-coast,S Tamilnadu and #Chennai.

On 25-Oct, N,W,NW zones of Maharastra got good T showers.
This is expected on Monday afternoon as well ..

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