Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bay circulation may not become a Cyclone !!

Latest analysis show a ... low-level circulation over E-central,central Bay and another over S-E corner Arabian sea .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dlsTb.jpg

GFS expects the Bay system to move West towards S-coast Andhra till 1-Oct and may drift North. No intensification expected !
ECMWF expects the Bay system to fizzle out while travelling West in next 48hrs. !
It expects another circulation over central Bay on 4-Oct.

Meanwhile, the S-E corner Arabian sea circulation is expected to persist over S-E Arabian sea near Kerala coast and fizzle in next 2 days !
S-E Arabian sea circulation will bring heavy/moderate rain for S,central Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu till 1-Oct.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs

3:30pm, T showers seen over S,w-ghats Kerala, S-tip,W,central,N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dluAg.jpg

Before morning of 30-Sep...
HEAVY T showers ahead for W-ghats Kerala, W-ghats,W,N-W,central Tamilnadu.
Towards midnight and into early morning of 30-Sep... NE monsoon style rain possible for N-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai and S-coast Andhra.

On 30-Sep..
More scattered T showers for N,central,S,W Tamilnadu and HEAVY rain for W-ghats Tamilnadu, Kerala.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dlvhl.jpg
On 30-Sep, evening.. T showers are expected to pop into S,S-W,W,N-W Karnataka, N Kerala and S-W Maharastra.

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