Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Another circulation expected over E India and less rain for Maharastra coast till 18-Jul

Latest analysis show a good East-coast offshore trough from S Bengal to S-E coast Tamilnadu all along S-E coast India ..
But, West coast offshore trough is still weak .. and seen only along S-coast Maharastra to N Kerala coast !

11:30am, Heavy rain over Bihar, N,central Bengal 
Karnataka coast, N coast Kerala also getting rainfall...
Heavy cloud cover over Chennai, N Tamilnadu, S Andhra ... due to tail of T shower over Bay...

Today, at upper-level a weak circulation seen over central Bay ... and weak, mini circulation over, along S Andhra..
This upper-level circulation over S Andhra is expected to persist for another 24hrs.
Along with another circulation over central Karnataka
This upper-level circulation can bring T showers for S,central Karantaka, Bangalore, N Tamilnadu, S Andhra, Chennai ..

Till, 17/18-Jul... the west-coast offshore trough is expected persist only from S Maharastra coast to N/central Kerala coast.

N-Bay is not expected to pop a circulation before 18-Jul.
Instead, on 17-Jul, a circulation is expected over Bihar ..
From 18-Jul, the upcoming Bihar circulation is expected to drift West ...

There's NO heavy, widespread rain expected along Maharastra coast, Gujarat and Mumbai till 18-Jul.
Latest MJO forecast suggests a Neutral phase after 23/24-Jul followed by a wet phase from 29-Jul to August end..
This (MJO forecast) may suggest bad news (No widespread rain) for West coast, W India even till 25-Jul.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs

During next 48hrs..
Heavy rain ahead for Karnataka coast, N,central Kerala and some over S-coast Maharastra.
Due to upper-level circulation over S Andhra.
Today scattered T showers for S Karnataka, Bangalore, N Tamilnadu, S,central Andhra, Chennai

#Chennai - can expect a T shower before early hrs of 16-Jul...

Many zones in East India, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bengal, Bihar, N,central Chatisgarh to get widespread rain on today and 16-Jul.
Over East India, the rainfall intensity is expected to increase over Bihar and E Uttarpradesh from evening, 16-Jul..

On evening of 16-Jul... more scattered T showers expected over S Karnataka, Bangalore, S Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu and for Chennai.

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