Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Now focus is on 95A and Monsoon onset over Kerala


94B is shortlived.
The mid,upper-level circulation over W Bay has drifted N and seen weak along S Odisha coast ... http://ow.ly/i/b7YKl 
The remnant of 94B .. as a weak mid-level (700hpa) circulation is expected to persist along Odisha coast for next 36hrs !

During past 48hrs, the S Arabian sea was showing signs of circulation ... now it is on and tracked as 95A.
At present 95A is having good circulation at 700hpa to 500hpa levels,
And
Weak at low-levels ... http://ow.ly/i/b7Zip 

Models suggest a rapid intensification in next 48hrs, descend as sea level LOW and expected to drift North .. http://ow.ly/i/b7Zux 
95A can become a tropical cyclone on 7-Jun while moving North into central Arabian sea ... http://ow.ly/i/b7ZFC 

In the meantime, a "weak" current of Monsoon is expected to set foot along Kerala coast on 5-Jun.
As long as 95A is intensifying and moving North / N-W the monsoon current will be less active along Kerala coast !

Low-level LWD over Peninsula is now running from S Tamilnadu to S,S-central Karnataka and to S,W Maharastra.
This'll pop more T showers !

On 4-Jun,
More T showers ahead for W-ghats Kerala, W-ghats,N-W,N,central Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/b80G8 
On 4-Jun, more T showers ahead for S,S-W,S-central Karnataka.
Due to remnant of 94B, T showers also for N-E Andhra and S,central Odisha.
More scattered T showers to continue over N-E states for next 48hrs.

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