Friday, June 05, 2015

Monsoon late again due to Arabian sea LOW


Monsoon onset along Kerala coast is late again due to S-central Arabian sea LOW ... http://ow.ly/i/b9Oqb 
Present LOW over S-central Arabian sea "95A" is slowly organizing itself and drifting North. It's circulation seen upto Upper-levels.
Due to 95A, the monsoon current and moisture is getting encircled around the LOW and seen weak along Kerala coast.. http://ow.ly/i/b9OGz 

This 95A is expected to drift North and intensify during next 2 days. GFS suggests a rapid intensification to Cyclone By Monday.
GFS expects 95A to move North and become a Cyclone by Monday, 8-Jun and reach near to S-W Gujarat coast, S Pakistan http://ow.ly/i/b9OZN 
At present the Arabian sea LOW 95A is located at 10.3N, 66.9E.. and pressure is around 1003mb.

At this same time, N-central Bay is having a mid-level trough extending from Bihar ... http://ow.ly/i/b9Pu4 
The central,w-central Bay is expected to drop weak low-level and strong mid,upper-level circulation by 7-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/b9PC9 
This Bay circulation is expected to drift W-S-W and come close to S-coast Andhra on evening of 7-Jun.

IMD declares Monsoon onset over Kerala "but" less rain seen over Kerala now. Rain not pushing into coast, 3:30pm.. http://ow.ly/i/b9Q3P 
Monsoon hits Kerala, confirms IMD ... http://ow.ly/NUuV2 
But

" Less rain ahead for next 36hrs for Kerala "

Rainfall forecast
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Due to 95A over Arabian sea, LESS rain forecast for Kerala, except along W-ghats till Morning of 7-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/b9R4R 
Due to W-central Bay circulation

HEAVY T showers expected over S,central,N-E Andhra, some into Telegana, S,S-E,central Karnataka in 36hrs
During next 36hrs, Some scattered T showers also for N,N-E,N-W Tamilnadu and over S,central Odisha.
Saturday afternoon... scattered T showers expected along W-ghats,W,S-W Maharastra, and N-W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/b9S6Q 

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