Friday, June 05, 2015

Monsoon late again due to Arabian sea LOW

Monsoon onset along Kerala coast is late again due to S-central Arabian sea LOW ... 
Present LOW over S-central Arabian sea "95A" is slowly organizing itself and drifting North. It's circulation seen upto Upper-levels.
Due to 95A, the monsoon current and moisture is getting encircled around the LOW and seen weak along Kerala coast.. 

This 95A is expected to drift North and intensify during next 2 days. GFS suggests a rapid intensification to Cyclone By Monday.
GFS expects 95A to move North and become a Cyclone by Monday, 8-Jun and reach near to S-W Gujarat coast, S Pakistan 
At present the Arabian sea LOW 95A is located at 10.3N, 66.9E.. and pressure is around 1003mb.

At this same time, N-central Bay is having a mid-level trough extending from Bihar ... 
The central,w-central Bay is expected to drop weak low-level and strong mid,upper-level circulation by 7-Jun... 
This Bay circulation is expected to drift W-S-W and come close to S-coast Andhra on evening of 7-Jun.

IMD declares Monsoon onset over Kerala "but" less rain seen over Kerala now. Rain not pushing into coast, 3:30pm.. 
Monsoon hits Kerala, confirms IMD ... 

" Less rain ahead for next 36hrs for Kerala "

Rainfall forecast
Due to 95A over Arabian sea, LESS rain forecast for Kerala, except along W-ghats till Morning of 7-Jun.. 
Due to W-central Bay circulation

HEAVY T showers expected over S,central,N-E Andhra, some into Telegana, S,S-E,central Karnataka in 36hrs
During next 36hrs, Some scattered T showers also for N,N-E,N-W Tamilnadu and over S,central Odisha.
Saturday afternoon... scattered T showers expected along W-ghats,W,S-W Maharastra, and N-W Karnataka ... 

No comments:

Post a Comment