Friday, June 06, 2014

Posted Friday afternoon:

South West Monsoon advancing into Kerala on Friday 6th June. The Monsoon move into Coastal and S.I. Karnataka and Southern TN by Sunday, 8th June.
Mumbai Monsoon around 14th...Saurashtra and Bharuch get their showers after 15th June..

Low pressure likely to form off the Kerala coast on 7th June. It can intensify first to a weel marked low and then depression. As a depression, it can be positioned due West off Goa by the 9th/10th of June. There is a trough in the 700 hpa level along the 19N line. System could get embedded in the trough. If so, then a) it can strengthen and move due West. b) If the rough gets weak by the 9th/10th, then the system will also weaken and move NW and dissipate.
Some models show a) and some b) as a possibility.
City wise on vagaries 

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