Monday, June 09, 2014

95A and Monsoon !! Heavy rain expected for Karnataka coast, Goa

Previous report about 95A and Monsoon, updated on 8-Jun-2014 can be read here ... http://indianweatherman.blogspot.in/2014/06/080614-95-a.html

As of 11:30am, 95A is still a well marked LOW lying over E-central Arabian sea.
Present position is 12.9N and 67E.
Pressure is around 1000mb as per GFS and 1004mb as per US NAVY analysis.


11:30am, Satellite visible shows ... Heavy convective activity along its W,S,S-W,S-E quadrants.
Satellite also shows the T shower activity over W Bay along N Tamilnadu coast and Andhra coast.
Reduced Rainfall activity over Kerala is also observed.

Forecast for 95A and Monsoon
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GFS predicts that during next 48hrs, "95A" will intensify to Deep Depression and move North or N-N-W upto 19 / 20N.
On 11-Jun, after reaching 19N the system is expected to travel West towards Oman coast.
95A is expected to make landfall along Oman coast as Cyclone on 13/14-Jun.

During next 24hrs, Monsoon is expected to push into Karnataka coast and #Goa as well, but most of moisture will be encircling the LOW pressure system 95A.
From today/tomorrow #Monsoon will be weak along Karnataka, Kerala coast and will be till 95A exhausts itself over Oman coast on 14-Jun.

#Chennai - upper level wind profile suggests that S-W Monsoon current is over city from last evening. 
And from now on, evening T-showers will develop over N-E Tamilnadu and travel into Sea (Bay) crossing Chennai city.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Today, till midnight, Showers expected to persist along Kerala, Karnataka coast.
Today, T showers expected along W,S-W,S,S-central Maharastra, S,central Karnataka, S,central Andhra.
Late evening or Midnight T showers again possible over N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai.
Late evening T shower possible over #Bangalore as well.

On 10-Jun, Due to 95A and Monsoon, HEAVY rain expected along Karnataka coast and #Goa.
Afternoon of 10-Jun can witness T showers over W Maharastra and an Odd one may pop into #Mumbai as well.
By evening, late evening - T showers expected over central,E Gujarat, central Maharastra, S,S-central Karnataka, S,central,N-E Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu.

On the eastern front, scattered T showers to continue over N-E states of India, Sikkim, N Bengal and over N,N-E Bihar on today, 10-Jun.
On 10-Jun, T showers expected along S-W Bengal and E Jharkhand.

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