Monsoon Watch -3 2014 (Additional)...May 2nd 2014
The enhanced convective phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is located across the western hemisphere and is gradually propagating eastwards.
The presence of ITCZ is in the northern hemispheric near equatorial region as well as the rainfall peak which occurred over the south peninsula.Hence, ITCZ seems to have crossed the Equator, 8 days ahead of the normal date.
A lull in the passage of western disturbances across north-west India aided in the increase in day maximum temperatures to rise to their near / above normal values over north-west & central India.
Jet Streams: The core was located around Lat. 28°N with the wind speed varying between 90-119 kts around 200 hPa.
The Important Parameter of the LWD formation in the Peninsula (bringing in required moisture) is also well formed. It is giving good adequate precipitation in the Southern regions (See map below )
(Pradeep's Page gives the daily figures)
SSTs are warming in the Arabian Sea to around 31c off the Goa and Kerala coast and 30c in the Lakshdweep Seas. Mumbai off coast SST was 29c on Saturday (last readings).. But, sooner than expected, we see strong North winds along the Somali coast, which has commenced the Somali Current effect. SSTs along the Somali coast is 24c.
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature not falling sufficiently yet along the Somali coast. It is presently just about around 24c in spots.
Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.
More on Somali current here:
The arrival date (Below) is calculated seeing today's position. Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress of the Monsoon Parameters.
Full Article in Vagaries
The enhanced convective phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is located across the western hemisphere and is gradually propagating eastwards.
The presence of ITCZ is in the northern hemispheric near equatorial region as well as the rainfall peak which occurred over the south peninsula.Hence, ITCZ seems to have crossed the Equator, 8 days ahead of the normal date.
A lull in the passage of western disturbances across north-west India aided in the increase in day maximum temperatures to rise to their near / above normal values over north-west & central India.
Jet Streams: The core was located around Lat. 28°N with the wind speed varying between 90-119 kts around 200 hPa.
The Important Parameter of the LWD formation in the Peninsula (bringing in required moisture) is also well formed. It is giving good adequate precipitation in the Southern regions (See map below )
(Pradeep's Page gives the daily figures)
SSTs are warming in the Arabian Sea to around 31c off the Goa and Kerala coast and 30c in the Lakshdweep Seas. Mumbai off coast SST was 29c on Saturday (last readings).. But, sooner than expected, we see strong North winds along the Somali coast, which has commenced the Somali Current effect. SSTs along the Somali coast is 24c.
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature not falling sufficiently yet along the Somali coast. It is presently just about around 24c in spots.
Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.
More on Somali current here:
The arrival date (Below) is calculated seeing today's position. Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress of the Monsoon Parameters.
Full Article in Vagaries
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