Analysis at 1pm, suggest that Depression 92B has slightly drifted North into N-E Bay and near to Myanmar coast during past 24hrs.
No intensification observed, but the mid,upper-level circulation of the system has become elongated from N-N-E to S-S-W. Only the low-level circulation is concentrated at the moment.
Thai met observes that Present pressure at the core is around 996mb (equivalent to Deep depression / Cyclone), but US NAVY puts it around 1000mb.
JTWC warning at 1pm
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. A 220336Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOPPY STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. AN OLDER 220021Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION
IN THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAIN-FLAGGED AND
NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
12:30pm, Satellite reveals, strong convective activity only along its South quadrant and near to centre.
Rest of #India is clear and #hot.
Today over inland, the low-level N-S trough from N Bengal has drifted East and now along S-E coast of India upto N Tamilnadu.
The S-S-E Arabian sea circulation also persists and will weaken in next 2 days.
Models did not expect 92B to become as a Cyclone, but expects the Depression to drift N-N-W in 24hrs and then West towards Odisha coast on 24/25-May.
If 92B drifts towards Odisha coast, the inland N-S trough will drift West on 24-May.
Rainfall alert ::
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During next 18hrs, T showers again expected over W,S,S-W Karnataka, most of W-ghats Kerala into N,N-W,W,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu.
Tomorrow, noon, evening - more T showers expected over W-ghats Kerala and into N,N-E,N-W,central Tamilnadu.
During early hrs and into morning showers possible along S Kerala coast and along coast of S tip Tamilnadu.
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