Cyclone "Mahasen" - As expected, it has moved N-E, No intensification yet!

During the past 6hrs, the system has moved N-E.
Now it has turned it movement towards Bangladesh coast, this was expected by most of the weather model except NAVGEM.
Latest position is 15.1N , 86.4E
Pressure remains the same around 989 mb

11pm, Satellite IR shows good convective activity around the system.

Latest JTWC path projection forecasts that the system may slightly intensify during next 24hrs and continue to track N-E. Expected landfall over South Bangaldesh coast is on morning of 17-May as a Cyclone.

But COLA GFS predicts a landfall over South Bangladesh coast on 16-May as a Cyclone.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm IST
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BUILT BACK OVER 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS 
FROM THE CONVERGENT BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS 
BASED ON A RECENT 140538Z OSCAT PASS INDICATING CENTRAL WINDS 
BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW 
SUPPORTING 45 KNOTS. THE LLCC HAS BEEN STEADILY TRACKING TO THE 
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
EAST OF TC 01B. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO DECREASE 
AND IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS), ALLOWING FOR 
THE BUILDING CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 
01B WILL REMAIN ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF 
BENGAL. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES 
CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
(INCREASING DIVERGENCE AND DECREASING VWS), WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AND 
VWS AS TC 01B MOVES NORTH OF THE STR AXIS WILL START TO WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. BEYOND LANDFALL, THE LLCC 
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH BANGLADESH 
INTO NORTHERN MYANMAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 21 FEET.

:: WARNING ::

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According COLA model, Showers are expected to start along Odisha coast, Bengal coast and Bangladesh coast from noon tomorrow.

By late evening the rain intensity and wind speed is expected to increase along S.Bengal and South Bangladesh coast.

Wind gusts are also expected all along the coast of above mentioned regions.

Sea over entire North Bay will be very rough from tomorrow noon. (yellow color on the map indicates wave height above 20 feet)