Cyclone "Mahasen" - Slightly weakened but moved N-N-E

Analysis show that the Cyclone has slightly weakened and tracked N-N-E during past 6 hrs.
Present position is 14.5N , 85.9E
Pressure is increased, now at around 989 mb
Winds gusting up to 83 kmph

3pm, Satellite Visible shot shows a mostly exposed core of the Cyclone. Almost NO convective activity seen over most of the quadrants, except over N,N-W quadrant.

3:10pm, RADAR from Visakapatnam reveals the nearest convective activity of the Cyclone at around 130 km South East from City.

JTWC warning and path project at 2:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION REMAINING WITHIN THE CONVERGENT BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON THE SLIGHT ELONGATION OF THE LLCC 
OBSERVED IN MSI AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATING A 
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE LLCC HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO TRACK TO 
THE NORTHEAST AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED (20 TO 30 
KNOTS) AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE EAST OF TC 
01B, ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCE TO BECOME MORE 
PRONOUNCED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 01B WILL REMAIN ON A GENERAL 
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR 
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND 
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (INCREASING DIVERGENCE AND DECREASING 
VWS), WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. 
INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AND VWS AS TC 01B MOVES NORTH OF THE STR 
AXIS WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 
72. BEYOND LANDFALL, THE LLCC WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS 
IT TRACKS THROUGH BANGLADESH INTO NORTHERN MYANMAR. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TO THE 
NORTHEAST, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY TO THE 
EAST OF THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT 
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 
21 FEET.

Latest COLA model suggests a landfall over South Bangladesh coast on 16-May as a Cyclone.

NAVGEM model still prefers a North Odisha and South Bengal coast on 16-May as a Cyclone.