"92B" - Now a LOW pressure system over S-S-E Bay.

Latest analysis show, that "92 B" is now a LOW pressure system with pressures around 1004 mb.
Present location is over S-S-E Bay.... 5.4N , 89.8E

JTWC warning at 11:30pm
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 89.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

COLA, IMD and NOGAPS Model agree that the system will be weak till Friday noon, before intensifying into a Depression and moving N-W into Bay on Saturday, 11-May.

According to COLA model, the Depression is expected to move North (from 11-May) towards Odisha coast and it may re-curve N-E towards Bangladesh or Myanmar coast and sees a weakening around N-W or N-Central Bay.

NOGAPS model also suggests the same path as that of COLA, and also suggests a weakening over N-W or N-Central Bay.

Monsoon Update :: 

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Once the system moves into Bay, the South West Monsoon is expected to set into S,S-E Bay and over South Andaman Islands on 12 / 13-May-2013