Posted Friday Morning @11.30 am IST:
As per detailed Sat Imagery and estimate of system centre, as on 05Z/22, it could be put to conclusion that the centre of the severe cyclone Helen, has crossed the coast of Andhra Pradesh (India) near 16.2N and 81.4E, near the town of Narsapur 16.2N and 81.4E). As the system weakened slightly prior to touching coast, prevailing winds are strong at 55 knts ,and pressure maintained at 990 mb. Absence of high rising clouds prevalent, as cloud top temperatures are lower at centre is -16c.
Very heavy rains now likely on Friday in Central and Northern coastal AP..upto 150-175 mms next 24 hrs. As clouds will spread, Andhra Pradesh will get good precipitation in the interiors ranging from 30-100 mms. Hyderabad will get heavy showers from Friday.
Rains spread to Southern Maharashtra and N.I.Karnataka on saturday.
Cloud bands will stretch to the NE and cover Odisha and Kolkata.
Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it would move NW then.
Meanwhile, the WD over UAE/Oman is moving East into Pakistan. Northern and Central Pakistan can get rain from Friday thru Sunday. Heavy rains expected in the North.
Cities in Sindh like Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkar can also expect showers. Karachi will be partly cloudy with light showers expected on Saturday.
WD in India will be restricted to the Northern hilly states.
www.vagaries.in
As per detailed Sat Imagery and estimate of system centre, as on 05Z/22, it could be put to conclusion that the centre of the severe cyclone Helen, has crossed the coast of Andhra Pradesh (India) near 16.2N and 81.4E, near the town of Narsapur 16.2N and 81.4E). As the system weakened slightly prior to touching coast, prevailing winds are strong at 55 knts ,and pressure maintained at 990 mb. Absence of high rising clouds prevalent, as cloud top temperatures are lower at centre is -16c.
Very heavy rains now likely on Friday in Central and Northern coastal AP..upto 150-175 mms next 24 hrs. As clouds will spread, Andhra Pradesh will get good precipitation in the interiors ranging from 30-100 mms. Hyderabad will get heavy showers from Friday.
Rains spread to Southern Maharashtra and N.I.Karnataka on saturday.
Cloud bands will stretch to the NE and cover Odisha and Kolkata.
Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it would move NW then.
Meanwhile, the WD over UAE/Oman is moving East into Pakistan. Northern and Central Pakistan can get rain from Friday thru Sunday. Heavy rains expected in the North.
Cities in Sindh like Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkar can also expect showers. Karachi will be partly cloudy with light showers expected on Saturday.
WD in India will be restricted to the Northern hilly states.
www.vagaries.in
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