Thursday, June 06, 2013

Monsoon Outlook bright for forecasted Advance along  West Coast:

With the expected formation of an upper air trough (at 700 hpa), roughly in the 20N line in the Arabian Sea, we see enhanced prospects of the Monsoon “respecting” vagaries’ expected date of arrival along the west coast of India.
This trough is expected to extend Eastwards, and form an off shore west coast trough, tilting westwards by Friday 7th.

On Thursday 6th, we see an embedded UAC near 60E (off the Oman coast). 
Soon, within 2 days, it will align itself from Saurashtra  downwards thru  Konkan  upto  Kerala.

As the SW wind strength and depth will be upto the 700 hpa levels, we can expect the Monsoon to  advance into Goa and South Konkan by Friday 7th. Heavy falls expected in Goa and South Konkan next 2 /3 days.

Seemingly good support from a NW India upper air low, we can safely assume SWM to move into North Konkan and Mumbai by Sunday, 9th
More details on vagaries

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