Cyclone "Mahasen" - Very slow Movement, maintaining intensity, next 12 hrs is crucial for direction.

Latest analysis show that Cyclone "Mahasen" has only moved a bit in past 8 hrs and in N-W direction.
This slowing down is expected by the previous JTWC warnings.
Present position as of 8:30pm is 10.5N , 86.9E
Pressure remains the same at around 989 mb and winds gusting up to 85 kmph.

JTWC warning and projected path at 8:30pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
REVEALS PULSATING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121128Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
SHOWS CONVECTION REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND BROKEN WHILE THE LLCC 
REMAINS FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL INDIA 
SHOW LARGE (>20 DEGREES) DEW POINT TEMPERATURE SPREADS INDICATIVE OF 
A DRY AIR MASS WHILE THE LATEST MICROWAVE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING 
INGESTED INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DRY AIR INGESTION 
CONTINUES TO BE THE REASON FOR THE FRAGMENTED AND FLARING NATURE OF 
THE CONVECTION DESPITE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POOR DEFINITION AND 
BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS 
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PROVIDING 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS (20-30 KNOTS). TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TURN 
NORTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ANDAMAN SEA. 
AFTER TAU 12, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH TAU 
36 BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE 
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 
OVER NORTHERN INDIA. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE 
SYSTEM CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW WITH ITS EXPOSURE INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 96, 
THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AS A 
SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE ALL WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO DIFFERENT TRACK 
SOLUTIONS. GFDN AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE 
NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIA, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL 
TRACKERS SEEM TO BE ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING INTO THE PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GFS, ECMWF AND EGRR HAVE STAYED 
CONSISTENT WITH THE RECURVE SCENARIO INTO BANGLADESH ALBEIT AT 
DIFFERENT TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST 
REMAINS FASTER AND EAST OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE 
NAVGEM AND GFDN SOLUTIONS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 19 FEET.

The past 3 NAVGEM model data has stated that "Mahasen" will make landfall over Odisha coast on 16-May.

While the COLA model is persisting with the Bangladesh coast landfall on 16-May.