Cyclone "Mahasen" - Intensified slightly, Moved N-W, Remember Cyclone "Laila" - May-2010

Latest analysis show that Cyclone "Mahasen" has moved N-W during past 12hrs.
Intensified slightly.
Now positioned at 9.1N , 88.4E.
Pressure is around 985 mb.
Wind gusts up to 93 kmph.

11:30pm, Satellite IR shows that the Huge core is over S-central Bay .

JTWC warning and projected path at 8:30pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE 
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
MULTIPLE FEEDER BANDS IN THE PERIPHERIES. AN 111140Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LLCC WHILE 
THE CONVECTION IN THE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN FRAGMENTED. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE DUE TO THE LLCC 
BEING OBSCURED BY THE LARGE CDO FEATURE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER 
THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 
KNES, DUE TO DEEPENING CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WHILE THE CURRENT STORM 
MOTION HAS BECOME IN PHASE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), RESULTING IN LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VWS. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF 
BENGAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO SLOW 
AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN INDIA AND THE 
NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. TC 01B WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A 
PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL 
MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TC AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH RECURVE 
SCENARIO TOWARDS BANGLADESH THROUGH TAU 72, BUT TWO SEPARATE 
SOLUTIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN PAST TAU 72. 
NAVGEM, EGRR AND GFDN ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE 
TROUGH TRANSITS THROUGH THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF STALL THE TROUGH 
OVER NORTHEASTERN INDIA RESULTING IN A SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO 
THIS DISAGREEMENT, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HEDGES BETWEEN THE TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE 
TIGHT GROUPING OF THE MODELS. AFTER TAU 72, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS 
LOW DUE TO THE TWO SEPERATE SOLUTIONS OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. 

Now the COLA and NOGAPS model suggests that "Mahasen" will track N-W for one more day and then North for one day and then N-N-E.

According to COLA model the Landfall estimate is now over S.Bangladesh on 16-May.

Latest NOGAPS model suggests that the landfall may be over North Odisha coast and South Bengal coast on 16-May.

Latest Upper level wind analysis show that the system will be steered N-W during next 24 hrs and then it will come under the influence of S-W to N-E strong upper level winds. This will make "Mahasen" to re-curve N-N-E or even N-E.

Remember, Cyclone "Laila"... same time of the year in 2010.

It also tracked the same path as that of "Mahasen" ... Laila continued to track N-W and made landfall over S.Andhra coast on 20-May-2010.

Please refer our coverage on this Cyclone here...

http://indianweatherman.blogspot.in/search?q=laila