"92B" is now "01B" - Cyclone !

Latest analysis show, that yesterday's weak LOW has intensified into a Deep Depression or a Cyclone.
Now its named as "01 B" - Cyclone., Soon it will be named as " Mahasen "
Present location is 5.1 N , 93.3 E (S-E Bay)
Pressure around 996 mb
Winds gusting up to 65 Kmph

2:30pm, Visible Satellite shot shows Good convective activity over S,S-W, W, N-E Quadrant of the system.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF 
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 100715Z AMSU-B IMAGE, 
WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ON THE 
EASTERN TIP OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH 
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT 
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, 
A 100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT 
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE OCEANSAT IMAGE 
SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE LLCC IS 
LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER 
THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE 
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO 
MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN 
BAY OF BENGAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B 
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO 
DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
100600Z IS 10 FEET.

MODEL forecast:

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Latest NOGAPS model suggest that "01 B" is expected to track North into Bay and then N-E towards North Myanmar coast. Landfall expected on 15-May. COLA and IMD model also agrees to this prediction.

Meanwhile, South West monsoon will be over S-E Bay and over South Andaman Islands on 12-May-2013.

Tourist warning :: Monsoon and Cyclone is near +Andaman Holidays +Andaman World Travel